4112 Heron Way Unit B106 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$53,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Condo · 145 Days on market

Built 1974 $646/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The sun shines here! Parking at your door, screen lanai views grass and trees. Neat, sweet convenient to public transportation, grocery, dining and all necessities. Community pool. Central and convenient location and minutes to Gulf beaches.

Key facts

• Ground floor
• Bbq areas
• Heated pool

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• NEWLY RESCREENED PATIO
• HEATED POOL
• LAKEFRONT OBSERVING DECK
• BBQ AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing contact phone: [phone]
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $646; Total annual fees $7,752; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; Monthly condo fee $646 (includes cable TV, pool, structure and grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities); Association approval required; Community clubhouse and pool; Association recreation owned; Buyer approval required; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Directions provided to building location
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Fixer condition; One story; Faces west; Entry on first floor
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Membrane roof; Slab foundation; Building identified as B
• Exterior features: Outdoor grill; Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Storage; In-ground spa; Gunite pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Elevator access; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area with corridor access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $370 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $54k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.16%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-2,163
• Equity at exit: $7,977

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-3,622
• Equity at exit: $4,626

Cash invested: $14,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$281
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$67 /mo · $802/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$646
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $53,500

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $183	+0% $164	+5% $146	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $46	-5% $105	+0% $164	+5% $223	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $178	base $164	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,375
• Closing costs: $1,605
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	4d	1	0.05mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	15d	1	0.13mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	22d	1	0.13mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	24d	1	0.13mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	2d	14	0.39mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	24d	1	0.46mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	2d	10	0.46mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	24d	5	0.50mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	24d	1	0.54mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	24d	1	0.60mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	3d	1	0.62mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	3d	1	0.68mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	12d	1	0.80mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	12d	1	0.80mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	12d	1	0.80mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	24d	1	0.80mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	16d	1	0.80mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	24d	1	0.82mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	20d	1	0.82mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	24d	1	0.84mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	24d	1	0.85mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	16d	1	0.87mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	4d	16	0.90mi
2315 17th Street Ln W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	24d	1	0.94mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	12d	1	0.96mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	16d	1	1.02mi
2403 21st Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	24d	1	1.03mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	24d	1	1.04mi
5062 Live Oak Cir Unit 5026 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,545	$1.72	16d	1	1.06mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	24d	1	1.06mi
5027 31st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$3,600	$3.70	22d	1	1.07mi
5026 Water Oak Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	24d	1	1.07mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	24d	1	1.09mi
2002 20th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	16d	1	1.09mi
4325 40th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,675	$2.16	11d	9	1.10mi
655 Park Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	816	$1,100	$1.35	24d	1	1.10mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	24d	1	1.11mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	16d	2	1.12mi
2127 13th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	24d	1	1.14mi
4630 5th St W Ste 6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	12d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $646 · $7,752/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $53,500 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $53,500 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $53,500 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $53,500 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $53,500 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $53,500 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $53,500 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $53,500 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $53,500 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $53,500 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $53,500 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $53,500 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $53,500 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $53,500 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $53,500
16. 2026-03-22
    price $69,500
17. 2026-01-24
    listed $75,000 Active
18. 2012-11-15
    soldstatus $29,500 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The sun shines here! Parking at your door, screen lanai views grass and trees. Neat, sweet convenient to public transportation, grocery, dining and all necessities. Community pool. Central and convenient location and minutes to Gulf beaches.

19. 2011-08-19
    listed $34,000 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The sun shines here! Parking at your door, screen lanai views grass and trees. Neat, sweet convenient to public transportation, grocery, dining and all necessities. Community pool. Central and convenient location and minutes to Gulf beaches.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,997
• − Property taxes: −$802
• − Insurance: −$268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − HOA: −$7,752
• − Depreciation: −$1,556
• Taxable income: $1,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $1,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+57.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $53,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $69,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-15 Sold (MLS) $29,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-19 Listed $34,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid