15191 Sage Ln · Weldon, CA 93283

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1965 0.62 ac lot $123/sqft · 12% below area Est $158k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom and two bath home on about 5/8th of an acre, fully fenced, zoned A for large animals and agriculture. The sellers started some renovations, but haven't finished, so it's a great opportunity for a buyer to add their own touch to their ideas for upgrades. The kitchen, 1 bathroom and Main bedroom have been upgraded. Huge back yard that has a VERY Large Chicken coop with about 40 chickens (Seller will leave chickens if buyer wants them). Produces lots of eggs, which the seller sells to neighbors and local people. Several fenced areas for gardens and 3 hot houses set up for for all your growing needs. Lots of mature, HUGE trees on the property that provide shade to the house and yards. There is a shared well, only 1 other parcel, & seller pays $60 per month for all the water he can use. This property is a great escape from the big city & can provide those who enjoy gardening a special place. Come take a look.

Key facts

• Room to expand
• 0.62 acre lot
• Built 1965

Tags

• ZONED FOR AGRICULTURE
• TWO SPACIOUS GREENHOUSES
• ROOM TO EXPAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Shared well; Solar system (owned/leased: Other)
• Home design: Single-family property; Owner-occupied; Cross street: Kelso Creek Rd
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: RV space available; 0.62-acre lot; Lot measured in square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling; Wood-burning stove heating
• Interior features: Range/Oven; Wood-burning stove; Evaporative cooling; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (35.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,596 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,218
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -11.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15191 Sage Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,136 (0%)	20mo	$197,500	$174	79
4483 Cottonwood Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,224 (+8%)	16mo	$156,000	$127	67
15100 Trotter Ln Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,262 (+11%)	19mo	$95,000	$75	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $45,870
• Equity at exit: $112,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $147,039
• Equity at exit: $229,827

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93283

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,578/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $90,596

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   price $140,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-05-16
   price $170,000 818-char remark
7. 2026-05-01
   listed $185,000 Active 818-char remark
8. 2024-10-11
   soldstatus $197,500 Closed 940-char remark

   Show marketing remark (940 chars)

   Two bedroom and two bath home on about 5/8th of an acre, fully fenced, zoned A for large animals and agriculture. The sellers started some renovations, but haven't finished, so it's a great opportunity for a buyer to add their own touch to their ideas for upgrades. The kitchen, 1 bathroom and Main bedroom have been upgraded. Huge back yard that has a VERY Large Chicken coop with about 40 chickens (Seller will leave chickens if buyer wants them). Produces lots of eggs, which the seller sells to neighbors and local people. Several fenced areas for gardens and 3 hot houses set up for for all your growing needs. Lots of mature, HUGE trees on the property that provide shade to the house and yards. There is a shared well, only 1 other parcel, & seller pays $60 per month for all the water he can use. This property is a great escape from the big city & can provide those who enjoy gardening a special place. Come take a look.

9. 2024-10-11
   soldstatus $197,000

   Show marketing remark (940 chars)

   Two bedroom and two bath home on about 5/8th of an acre, fully fenced, zoned A for large animals and agriculture. The sellers started some renovations, but haven't finished, so it's a great opportunity for a buyer to add their own touch to their ideas for upgrades. The kitchen, 1 bathroom and Main bedroom have been upgraded. Huge back yard that has a VERY Large Chicken coop with about 40 chickens (Seller will leave chickens if buyer wants them). Produces lots of eggs, which the seller sells to neighbors and local people. Several fenced areas for gardens and 3 hot houses set up for for all your growing needs. Lots of mature, HUGE trees on the property that provide shade to the house and yards. There is a shared well, only 1 other parcel, & seller pays $60 per month for all the water he can use. This property is a great escape from the big city & can provide those who enjoy gardening a special place. Come take a look.

10. 2024-08-22
    status Pending 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (940 chars)

    Two bedroom and two bath home on about 5/8th of an acre, fully fenced, zoned A for large animals and agriculture. The sellers started some renovations, but haven't finished, so it's a great opportunity for a buyer to add their own touch to their ideas for upgrades. The kitchen, 1 bathroom and Main bedroom have been upgraded. Huge back yard that has a VERY Large Chicken coop with about 40 chickens (Seller will leave chickens if buyer wants them). Produces lots of eggs, which the seller sells to neighbors and local people. Several fenced areas for gardens and 3 hot houses set up for for all your growing needs. Lots of mature, HUGE trees on the property that provide shade to the house and yards. There is a shared well, only 1 other parcel, & seller pays $60 per month for all the water he can use. This property is a great escape from the big city & can provide those who enjoy gardening a special place. Come take a look.

11. 2024-03-27
    listed $205,000 Active 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (940 chars)

    Two bedroom and two bath home on about 5/8th of an acre, fully fenced, zoned A for large animals and agriculture. The sellers started some renovations, but haven't finished, so it's a great opportunity for a buyer to add their own touch to their ideas for upgrades. The kitchen, 1 bathroom and Main bedroom have been upgraded. Huge back yard that has a VERY Large Chicken coop with about 40 chickens (Seller will leave chickens if buyer wants them). Produces lots of eggs, which the seller sells to neighbors and local people. Several fenced areas for gardens and 3 hot houses set up for for all your growing needs. Lots of mature, HUGE trees on the property that provide shade to the house and yards. There is a shared well, only 1 other parcel, & seller pays $60 per month for all the water he can use. This property is a great escape from the big city & can provide those who enjoy gardening a special place. Come take a look.

12. 2024-01-17
    price $205,000
13. 2023-09-17
    status Active
14. 2023-07-13
    price $219,000
15. 2023-07-08
    price $189,000
16. 2023-06-23
    listed $180,000 Active
17. 2019-11-26
    price $85,000
18. 2019-11-25
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold
19. 2019-11-25
    soldstatus $85,000
20. 2019-11-25
    soldstatus $85,000
21. 2019-10-02
    status Pending
22. 2019-10-02
    price $89,000
23. 2019-08-20
    price $89,000
24. 2019-06-25
    price $85,000
25. 2019-06-07
    listed $89,000
26. 2019-04-11
    price $89,000
27. 2019-02-25
    price $95,000
28. 2019-01-02
    listed $99,500 Active
29. 2018-10-26
    soldstatus $85,000
30. 2018-10-26
    soldstatus $85,000
31. 2018-04-24
    listed $95,500
32. 2003-01-16
    soldstatus $50,000
33. 2003-01-16
    soldstatus $54,000
34. 1989-06-28
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,578 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,578 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,578
• − Insurance: −$2,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,036
• − Management: −$1,036
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$5,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1218
• US rank: #26156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weldon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,129

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 468.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $140,000 GEMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $170,000 GEMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $185,000 GEMLS
• 2024-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $197,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-11 Sold (MLS) $197,500 SSMLS
• 2024-08-22 Pending — SSMLS
• 2024-03-27 Listed $205,000 SSMLS
• 2024-01-17 Price Changed $205,000 SSMLS
• 2023-09-17 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2023-07-13 Price Changed $219,000 SSMLS
• 2023-07-08 Price Changed $189,000 SSMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listed $180,000 SSMLS
• 2019-11-26 Price Changed $85,000 GEMLS
• 2019-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-25 Sold (MLS) $85,000 SSMLS
• 2019-11-25 Sold (MLS) $85,000 GEMLS
• 2019-10-02 Pending — GEMLS
• 2019-10-02 Price Changed $89,000 GEMLS
• 2019-08-20 Price Changed $89,000 GEMLS
• 2019-06-25 Price Changed $85,000 GEMLS
• 2019-06-07 Listed $89,000 SSMLS
• 2019-04-11 Price Changed $89,000 GEMLS
• 2019-02-25 Price Changed $95,000 GEMLS
• 2019-01-02 Listed $99,500 GEMLS
• 2018-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $85,000 SSMLS
• 2018-04-24 Listed $95,500 SSMLS
• 2003-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,578 · +99.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.