Avondale Plan · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$252,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · SingleFamily · 188 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Fall in love with Trails West's coziest home, The Avondale. This charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home is the perfect space for those who want to keep things feeling homey. The open entertainment area is perfect for hosting a few friends over for game night or enjoying a meal at the dinner table. The two bedrooms can be transformed to fit your unique needs. Use the master bedroom to rest and unwind after a long day at work and turn the spare bedroom into a children's bedroom, a home office, and more. Don't miss out on your opportunity to call the Avondale home today!

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 187 days

🏗️ New construction. The $252,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,123.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,428 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,123
• List price: $252,900
• Delta: -6.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8959 Angels Landing Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0	997 (-0%)	3mo	$260,900	$262	84
15905 Delicate Arch Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,211 (+21%)	3mo	$296,900	$245	58
8953 Angels Landing Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,211 (+21%)	2mo	$291,900	$241	56
15941 Delicate Arch Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (+21%)	3mo	$286,900	$237	56
15959 Delicate Arch Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (+21%)	3mo	$280,900	$232	55
5548 Melvin Padgett Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-0%)	14mo	$235,000	$235	48
6093 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (+22%)	15mo	$230,000	$189	33
15748 Equine Gait Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (+22%)	24mo	$259,000	$212	29
5743 Middleton Ct	1.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+25%)	32mo	$180,000	$144	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-28,206
• Equity at exit: $84,571

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-15,974
• Equity at exit: $106,694

Cash invested: $75,635 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $286,400 ($243/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +10.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,052/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,363

Max offer price $210,827

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-316	+0% $-410	+5% $-503	+10% $-596
Rent	-10% $-555	-5% $-483	+0% $-410	+5% $-337	+10% $-264
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-341	base $-410	+0.5pp $-480	+1.0pp $-551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,531
• Closing costs: $8,104
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15818 Queensway Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1446	$1,770	$1.22	0d	1	0.09mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1638	$1,764	$1.08	0d	9	0.23mi
6110 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,800	$1.29	0d	1	0.54mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,900

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral HVAC
• Home design: New construction plan (Avondale)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1002Built as the Avondale plan
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Active listing (Plan: Avondale)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $252,900 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $252,900 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $252,900 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $252,900 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $252,900 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $252,900 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $252,900 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $252,900 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $252,900 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $252,900 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $252,900 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $252,900 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $252,900 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $252,900 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $252,900 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $252,900 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $252,900 Active 171 DOM
18. 2026-10-20
    days on market $252,900 Active 169 DOM
19. 2026-10-19
    days on market $252,900 Active 168 DOM
20. 2026-10-18
    days on market $252,900 Active 167 DOM
21. 2026-10-17
    days on market $252,900 Active 166 DOM
22. 2026-10-16
    days on market $252,900 Active 165 DOM
23. 2026-10-15
    days on market $252,900 Active 164 DOM
24. 2026-10-14
    days on market $252,900 Active 163 DOM
25. 2026-10-13
    days on market $252,900 Active 162 DOM
26. 2026-10-12
    days on market $252,900 Active 161 DOM
27. 2026-10-11
    days on market $252,900 Active 160 DOM
28. 2026-10-10
    days on market $252,900 Active 159 DOM
29. 2026-10-09
    days on market $252,900 Active 158 DOM
30. 2026-10-08
    days on market $252,900 Active 157 DOM
31. 2026-10-07
    days on market $252,900 Active 156 DOM
32. 2026-10-06
    pricedays on market $252,900 Active 155 DOM
33. 2026-10-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 154 DOM
34. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 153 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 152 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 151 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 150 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 149 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $249,900 Active 148 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 147 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 146 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $249,900 Active 144 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 143 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 142 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 141 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 140 DOM
47. 2026-09-19
    days on market $249,900 Active 138 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 137 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $249,900 Active 136 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 135 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,131
• − Property taxes: −$4,052
• − Insurance: −$1,351
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − Depreciation: −$7,858
• Taxable loss: −$9,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,352
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Avondale home in Jacksonville, FL is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's move-in ready with minor maintenance needed for exterior trim and gutters. Paint and clean gutters would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 High Baldwin Middle-Senior High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,013,010 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 33% of renters

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Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,900

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral HVAC
• Home design: New construction plan (Avondale)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1002Built as the Avondale plan
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Active listing (Plan: Avondale)