2213 Pioneer Dr · Princeton, TX 75407

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 $186/sqft · 13% below area Est $299k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You enter the home from the covered porch into the foyer, where a coat closet and access to the two-car garage welcome you. Continuing through the hallway, you step into the open family room, dining area, and kitchen. Off the dining area are two additional bedrooms that share a full bath, along with a conveniently located laundry room. Just off the kitchen, you'll find a covered back patio perfect for outdoor living, as well as the primary bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Kitchen
• Laundry room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• COAT CLOSET
• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 683 students, 54% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,150 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,333
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -13.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2212 Pioneer Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	3mo	$282,490	$200	95
2314 Winthrop Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	3mo	$254,490	$180	90
203 Connecticut Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,401 (0%)	6mo	$239,990	$171	85
108 Connecticut Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,401 (0%)	6mo	$234,000	$167	84
205 Bradford Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,401 (0%)	12mo	$264,990	$189	82
102 Connecticut Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	6mo	$280,990	$199	81
153 Bradford Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,401 (0%)	12mo	$265,990	$190	77
2305 States St	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,605 (+15%)	2mo	$292,990	$183	66
205 Connecticut Ct	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,605 (+15%)	2mo	$263,990	$164	62
214 Connecticut Ct	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,605 (+15%)	4mo	$290,990	$181	62
209 Bradford Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,605 (+15%)	6mo	$255,000	$159	58
2015 Partridge Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+10%)	5mo	$305,435	$199	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-59,803
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-90,163
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $233,373

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-94	+0% $-184	+5% $-274	+10% $-364
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-265	+0% $-184	+5% $-103	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-118	base $-184	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2207 Pioneer Dr Unit 2207 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	15d	1	0.02mi
2117 Revere Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$2,050	$1.26	45d	1	0.10mi
2119 Hamilton St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.16mi
2301 States St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,770	$1.23	45d	1	0.16mi
2307 States St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,800	$1.27	45d	1	0.16mi
2313 States St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,200	$1.20	26d	1	0.17mi
410 Forest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,800	$1.27	9d	1	0.20mi
216 Savannah Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,875	$1.14	9d	1	0.21mi
1906 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,995	$1.22	45d	1	0.25mi
112 Connecticut Ct , TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,990	$1.24	45d	1	0.26mi
1901 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,750	$1.09	21d	1	0.27mi
1819 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,700	$1.18	45d	1	0.27mi
1818 Marquette Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	45d	1	0.28mi
111 Connecticut Ct Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,895	$1.34	22d	1	0.28mi
603 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,897	$1.16	7d	1	0.30mi
622 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,850	$1.13	24d	1	0.31mi
617 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,749	$1.24	7d	1	0.32mi
1805 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,775	$1.24	45d	1	0.33mi
1710 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,770	$1.23	4d	1	0.37mi
1709 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,695	$1.04	45d	1	0.38mi
1708 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,850	$1.01	6d	1	0.38mi
2905 Cantoni Crk Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	45d	1	0.58mi
1605 Fox DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1435	$2,208	$1.54	0d	11	0.61mi
3007 Italia Ter Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	26d	1	0.62mi
600 W Monte Carlo Blvd Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1245	$1,728	$1.39	0d	30	0.75mi
3204 Ferrero Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,900	$1.05	1d	1	0.76mi
1414 Windermere Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1635	$1,945	$1.19	1d	1	0.86mi
604 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1882	$2,045	$1.09	0d	1	0.89mi
1104 Witherspoon Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1845	$2,200	$1.19	45d	1	0.90mi
610 Union Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,350	$1.28	26d	1	0.92mi
2107 Camellia St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,200	$1.20	15d	1	0.95mi
907 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1627	$1,995	$1.23	26d	1	0.98mi
812 Indigo Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.98mi
802 Platinum Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$1,875	$1.10	22d	1	0.98mi
1655 Ratama Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,250	$1.22	15d	1	0.98mi
1106 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	0.99mi
1008 N 4th St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,761	$1.41	1d	1	1.00mi
912 N 4th St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,149	$1.48	1d	1	1.03mi
1211 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,770	$1.26	19d	1	1.05mi
1211 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,995	$1.42	45d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $260,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $260,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $260,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $260,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-05-09
   listed $260,000 Active 506-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$6,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B