4949 Nc-8 Hwy · Danbury, NC 27022

$154,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1937 1.46 ac lot Est $251k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OLDER HOME THAT HAS BEEN PARTIALLY REMOLDED AND NEEDS MORE WORK. THE UP STAIRS CEILING IS 6' 8' FOR THE ENTIRE SECOND FLOOR. PARTIAL FENCING AND SOME OLD PARTIAL BARN STRUCTURE. HOME IS BEING SOLD "AS IS", NO REPAIRS WILL BE DONE.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private well
• Septic system

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 1.46 acres (approx. 300 x 215 x 301 x 215); Zoned R-A; Directions: From downtown Danbury, take NC Hwy 8 North toward Lawsonville ~10 miles; property is on the left at 4949 NC Hwy 8 N.

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Frame construction; Foundation: other
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fencing (other); Shingle roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.7% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#192 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Stokes County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #78 of 178 in NC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chestnut Grove Middle School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #134 of 475 statewide, top 29%, 661 students, 52% FRL); West Stokes High School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 785 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 230 units permitted in Stokes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Stokes County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $154k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,051 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,104
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1352 Weldon Smith Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (-2%)	14mo	$244,000	$133	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $66,654
• Equity at exit: $126,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $198,372
• Equity at exit: $260,955

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27022

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $138,169

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $154,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $154,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $154,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   listed $159,900 Active
6. 2020-03-10
   soldstatus $53,000
7. 2020-03-09
   soldstatus $53,000 Sold 243-char remark

   Show marketing remark (243 chars)

   OLDER HOME THAT HAS BEEN PARTIALLY REMOLDED AND NEEDS MORE WORK. THE UP STAIRS CEILING IS 6' 8' FOR THE ENTIRE SECOND FLOOR. PARTIAL FENCING AND SOME OLD PARTIAL BARN STRUCTURE. HOME IS BEING SOLD "AS IS", NO REPAIRS WILL BE DONE.

8. 2020-01-21
   status Pending 243-char remark

   Show marketing remark (243 chars)

   OLDER HOME THAT HAS BEEN PARTIALLY REMOLDED AND NEEDS MORE WORK. THE UP STAIRS CEILING IS 6' 8' FOR THE ENTIRE SECOND FLOOR. PARTIAL FENCING AND SOME OLD PARTIAL BARN STRUCTURE. HOME IS BEING SOLD "AS IS", NO REPAIRS WILL BE DONE.

9. 2019-11-27
   listed $55,000 Active 243-char remark

   Show marketing remark (243 chars)

   OLDER HOME THAT HAS BEEN PARTIALLY REMOLDED AND NEEDS MORE WORK. THE UP STAIRS CEILING IS 6' 8' FOR THE ENTIRE SECOND FLOOR. PARTIAL FENCING AND SOME OLD PARTIAL BARN STRUCTURE. HOME IS BEING SOLD "AS IS", NO REPAIRS WILL BE DONE.

10. 1998-01-01
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$690/yr (+$57/mo · 120.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,008
• − Management: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$3,860
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$926
• After-tax cash flow: $-149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stokes County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704380
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,284
• Composite: 39.58/100
• National rank: #3928
• State rank: #78 of 178 in NC

Livability — Danbury

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #9582

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,187

Population outlook (Stokes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,106 people
• By 2030: 42,264 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 37,833 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 32,818 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 23,281 · -47.2%
• By 2100: 15,676 · -64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Iranian 3% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stokes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.6) · D 19.8% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -59.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.6 2020: R+57.8 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.90%
• Current HPI: 304.1968
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+166.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $159,900 Hive MLS
• 2020-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-09 Sold (MLS) $53,000 Triad MLS
• 2020-01-21 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2019-11-27 Listed $55,000 Triad MLS
• 1998-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $573 · +61.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.