336 E Ogden Ave · Geneseo, IL 61254

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1909 8,550 sqft lot $158/sqft · 14% above area Est $170k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,550 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1909

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 6.9% in Geneseo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $139k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.51%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,068
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -18.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 N Meadow St	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	824 (-6%)	9mo	$119,000	$144	69
615 N Meadow St	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	824 (-6%)	9mo	$119,000	$144	69
415 E Palace Row	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (+7%)	9mo	$121,000	$129	61
415 E Palace	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (+7%)	9mo	$121,000	$129	61
606 Russell Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+9%)	21mo	$118,900	$124	57
606 Russell Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+9%)	21mo	$118,900	$124	57
139 N Vail St	0.69mi	3/2.0	952 (+8%)	3mo	$162,000	$170	48
308 N Stewart St	0.72mi	3/1.0	768 (-13%)	0mo	$109,000	$142	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $17,803
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $67,489
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61254

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,917/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $139,000
16. 2026-04-03
    listed $149,000 Active
17. 2025-11-16
    historical
18. 2025-11-15
    historical
19. 2025-10-13
    price
20. 2025-08-22
    price
21. 2025-07-15
    listed Active
22. 2024-07-31
    historical
23. 2024-07-31
    historical
24. 2024-07-10
    price
25. 2024-06-20
    price
26. 2024-06-18
    listed Active
27. 2024-05-09
    soldstatus $55,000
28. 2024-04-29
    soldstatus $55,000
29. 2024-04-29
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
30. 2024-04-10
    status Pending
31. 2024-04-08
    price $60,000
32. 2024-03-21
    listed $60,000
33. 2024-03-21
    listed $65,000 Active
34. 2021-08-06
    historical
35. 2021-02-24
    soldstatus $43,000
36. 2021-02-24
    soldstatus $43,000
37. 2020-04-29
    listed $65,000
38. 2020-04-29
    listed $65,000
39. 2016-10-03
    soldstatus $52,500
40. 2007-08-01
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,536 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,917
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $5,711
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,371
• After-tax cash flow: $6,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geneseo CUSD 228
• NCES district ID: 1716350
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,288
• Composite: 22.91/100
• National rank: #7996
• State rank: #297 of 620 in IL

Livability — Geneseo

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #907

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geneseo, IL
• City population: 12,049
• Population (ZIP): 12,049

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,376 people
• By 2030: 45,920 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 42,829 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 39,606 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 31,848 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 23,503 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: English 9% Romanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.5) · D 36.8% · R 61.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.5 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+21.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.08%
• Current HPI: 157.4041
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+164.8% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $139,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $149,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-18 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-29 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-29 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-10 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $60,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-21 Listed $65,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-21 Listed $60,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-24 Sold (MLS) $43,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-24 Sold (MLS) $43,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-29 Listed $65,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-29 Listed $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2007-08-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,917 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.