499 Mississippi Park · Conroe, TX 77302

$319,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1969 0.31 ac lot $126/sqft · at area comps Est $320k · at est. $90/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly remodeled home in sought-after River Plantation! This beautiful renovated residence features a brand-new roof (2025), HVAC replaced in 2024, new flooring and fresh paint throughout. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot and NEVER flooded. The spacious primary suite offers a completely remodeled ensuite bath with double sinks, frameless glass shower, and a large soaking tub, plus a huge walk-in closet with built-ins. Flexible floor plan includes formal living and dining rooms, a family room, and a charming niche under the stairs—perfect for storage or décor. Move-in ready and beautifully updated!

Key facts

• Hvac replaced
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• HVAC REPLACED
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• REMODELED ENSUITE BATH
• FRAMELESS GLASS SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Somerset Association Management; Annual HOA fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, tennis courts, pickleball, basketball court, picnic area, trails, and golf; HOA fee covers common areas and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Located on a cul-de-sac; Near golf course; Subdivision setting; Additional parcel(s) included
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Built in 1969
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Tennis court(s) on property or in community; Covered patio/porch/deck combinations

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Disposal; Oven; Pantry; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level); Three additional bedrooms (Second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (one); Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Primary bedroom with bath; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Vanity; Ceiling fans; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First level, 9x7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-61/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilkinson El (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 944 students, 54% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 34% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1120 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,917 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,625
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: -0.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Monitor Park	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,580 (+2%)	1mo	$425,000	$165	86
526 Marymont Park	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,503 (-1%)	7mo	$365,000	$146	85
614 Orangewood Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,688 (+6%)	3mo	$289,900	$108	67
12846 Meadow Wind Way	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,442 (-3%)	3mo	$389,514	$160	64
530 Bull Run Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,665 (+6%)	1mo	$299,900	$113	63
12853 Meadow Wind Way	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+4%)	3mo	$406,704	$155	63
606 Orangewood Dr	0.41mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,668 (+6%)	6mo	$350,000	$131	55
702 Fairway Oaks	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,702 (+7%)	3mo	$554,000	$205	50
528 Robert E Lee Dr	0.67mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,670 (+6%)	4mo	$250,000	$94	50
12818 Meadow Wind Way	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,206 (-13%)	1mo	$364,315	$165	50
559 Hampton Rd	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,804 (+11%)	2mo	$419,000	$149	50
454 Stephen F Austin Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,693 (+7%)	5mo	$374,500	$139	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-50,916
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-40,232
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1120
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,217/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,056

Max offer price $318,105

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $85	+0% $-5	+5% $-95	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-126	+0% $-5	+5% $115	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $76	base $-5	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
493 Monticello Park Conroe, TX	5.0	3.5	2921	$3,400	$1.16	26d	1	0.60mi
461 Stephen F Austin Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	3023	$3,036	$1.00	7d	1	0.70mi
915 Longleaf Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,975	$1.12	46d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $319,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $319,000 Active 618-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    historical
18. 2025-10-31
    listed $330,000 Active
19. 2025-10-14
    historical
20. 2025-10-01
    status Active
21. 2025-09-28
    historical
22. 2025-06-13
    price $330,000
23. 2025-04-30
    status Active
24. 2025-04-29
    historical
25. 2025-04-28
    price $335,000
26. 2025-04-03
    price $344,500
27. 2025-03-10
    price $349,800
28. 2025-03-09
    listed $348,500 Active
29. 2024-09-06
    soldstatus
30. 2020-09-25
    soldstatus
31. 2020-09-24
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2020-09-06
    status Pending
33. 2020-08-31
    status Option Pending
34. 2020-04-03
    listed $229,900 Active
35. 2018-03-22
    historical
36. 2018-03-01
    listed $239,900 Active
37. 2018-02-28
    historical
38. 2018-01-17
    price $242,900
39. 2017-12-01
    price $249,900
40. 2017-11-09
    listed $259,900 Active
41. 2016-07-22
    soldstatus
42. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,217 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,217 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$6,217
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,927
• − Management: −$2,927
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$5,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $1,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+22.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $344,500 HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $349,800 HARMLS
• 2025-03-09 Listed $348,500 HARMLS
• 2024-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-09-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-03 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2018-03-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-03-01 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2018-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-01-17 Price Changed $242,900 HARMLS
• 2017-12-01 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2017-11-09 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2016-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,217 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.