104 Prince Charles Ln · Dumfries, VA 22026

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 2013 Good condition $104/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exquisite renovated 3 bedroom + 2 full bath manufactured double wide home. This is not your regular renovated property, this renovation has been done with care and good taste. You will love the living area open concept, the size of the bedrooms, the mazing style of 2 full baths. Property location is a dream, just off of Exit 152 of I-95, behind of new Rose Casino in Dumfries. Close to shopping centers, Quantico Base, Hospitals, etc. Perfect for starting home, you will love this gem of a house.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2013
• Listed 132 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.5% in Dumfries — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#32 in VA, #789 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.75%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $424,767
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -62.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Kings Row Pl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-14%)	22mo	$120,000	$91	56
3345 Mountain Laurel Loop	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	16mo	$515,000	$343	48
3746 Hedgeman St	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,324 (-14%)	20mo	$385,000	$291	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $43,155
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $115,712
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22026

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $1,147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,258	-5% $1,202	+0% $1,147	+5% $1,092	+10% $1,037
Rent	-10% $922	-5% $1,035	+0% $1,147	+5% $1,260	+10% $1,372
Rate	-1.0pp $1,228	-0.5pp $1,188	base $1,147	+0.5pp $1,106	+1.0pp $1,064

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17360 Tripoli Blvd Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.0	1052	$2,790	$2.65	44d	1	0.21mi
3511 Briarwood Dr Dumfries, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,185	$2.48	6d	8	0.31mi
4101 La Mauricie Loop Dumfries, VA	4.0	2.5	2197	$2,900	$1.32	44d	1	0.64mi
17472 Tangariro Sq Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1944	$2,700	$1.39	25d	1	0.65mi
3421 Belleplain Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1628	$2,500	$1.54	44d	1	0.76mi
16931 Toms River Loop Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1994	$2,700	$1.35	44d	1	0.82mi
17259 Larkin Dr Dumfries, VA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,890	$1.45	44d	1	0.83mi
3153 Antrim Cir Dumfries, VA	2.0	2.0	1418	$3,000	$2.12	44d	1	0.85mi
16889 Toms River Loop Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1662	$3,300	$1.99	16d	1	0.89mi
17286 Wexford Loop Dumfries, VA	4.0	3.5	1971	$2,742	$1.39	25d	1	0.90mi
17286 Wexford Loop Dumfries, VA	4.0	3.5	2112	$2,742	$1.30	20d	1	0.90mi
16919 Gentle Wood Ln Dumfries, VA	4.0	2.5	2028	$3,000	$1.48	19d	1	0.94mi
3648 McDowell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,480	$1.29	44d	1	0.97mi
3629 McDowell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,950	$1.52	44d	1	1.02mi
2325 McClellan Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,207	$1.65	25d	1	1.10mi
1810 Fort Pulaski Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	13d	1	1.12mi
2424 Kilpatrick Pl Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	16d	1	1.15mi
2424 Kilpatrick Pl Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	44d	1	1.15mi
17357 Sligo Loop Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1776	$2,900	$1.63	44d	1	1.16mi
17045 Gibson Mill Rd Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1170	$3,000	$2.56	44d	1	1.17mi
2902 Buell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,400	$1.85	6d	1	1.18mi
16500 Stedham Cir Montclair, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,822	$2.75	3d	19	1.33mi
16766 Blackjack Oak Ln Woodbridge, VA	3.0	3.5	1794	$3,295	$1.84	21d	1	1.37mi
2940 Shumard Oak Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,905	$2.87	2d	22	1.37mi
2940 Shumard Oak Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,744	$2.71	44d	17	1.37mi
2819 Chinkapin Oak Ln Woodbridge, VA	3.0	2.5	1571	$2,800	$1.78	4d	1	1.41mi
2925 Wythe Ct Woodbridge, VA	4.0	2.5	1711	$3,300	$1.93	19d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    status Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Exquisite renovated 3 bedroom + 2 full bath manufactured double wide home. This is not your regular renovated property, this renovation has been done with care and good taste. You will love the living area open concept, the size of the bedrooms, the mazing style of 2 full baths. Property location is a dream, just off of Exit 152 of I-95, behind of new Rose Casino in Dumfries. Close to shopping centers, Quantico Base, Hospitals, etc. Perfect for starting home, you will love this gem of a house.

16. 2026-04-02
    historical 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Exquisite renovated 3 bedroom + 2 full bath manufactured double wide home. This is not your regular renovated property, this renovation has been done with care and good taste. You will love the living area open concept, the size of the bedrooms, the mazing style of 2 full baths. Property location is a dream, just off of Exit 152 of I-95, behind of new Rose Casino in Dumfries. Close to shopping centers, Quantico Base, Hospitals, etc. Perfect for starting home, you will love this gem of a house.

17. 2026-02-09
    status Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Exquisite renovated 3 bedroom + 2 full bath manufactured double wide home. This is not your regular renovated property, this renovation has been done with care and good taste. You will love the living area open concept, the size of the bedrooms, the mazing style of 2 full baths. Property location is a dream, just off of Exit 152 of I-95, behind of new Rose Casino in Dumfries. Close to shopping centers, Quantico Base, Hospitals, etc. Perfect for starting home, you will love this gem of a house.

18. 2026-02-05
    historical Active Under Contract 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Exquisite renovated 3 bedroom + 2 full bath manufactured double wide home. This is not your regular renovated property, this renovation has been done with care and good taste. You will love the living area open concept, the size of the bedrooms, the mazing style of 2 full baths. Property location is a dream, just off of Exit 152 of I-95, behind of new Rose Casino in Dumfries. Close to shopping centers, Quantico Base, Hospitals, etc. Perfect for starting home, you will love this gem of a house.

19. 2026-01-22
    listed $159,900 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Exquisite renovated 3 bedroom + 2 full bath manufactured double wide home. This is not your regular renovated property, this renovation has been done with care and good taste. You will love the living area open concept, the size of the bedrooms, the mazing style of 2 full baths. Property location is a dream, just off of Exit 152 of I-95, behind of new Rose Casino in Dumfries. Close to shopping centers, Quantico Base, Hospitals, etc. Perfect for starting home, you will love this gem of a house.

20. 2026-01-22
    historical $159,900 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Exquisite renovated 3 bedroom + 2 full bath manufactured double wide home. This is not your regular renovated property, this renovation has been done with care and good taste. You will love the living area open concept, the size of the bedrooms, the mazing style of 2 full baths. Property location is a dream, just off of Exit 152 of I-95, behind of new Rose Casino in Dumfries. Close to shopping centers, Quantico Base, Hospitals, etc. Perfect for starting home, you will love this gem of a house.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,737
• − Management: −$2,737
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $11,931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,863
• After-tax cash flow: $10,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, recently renovated 3-bedroom home is move-in ready and offers a great location with easy access to amenities. Minor cosmetic updates could further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Add a small front porch or bench — Enhances curb appeal and provides a welcoming entrance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Add a small front porch or bench — Enhances curb appeal and provides a welcoming entrance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dumfries

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #789

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dumfries, VA
• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• City population: 42,253
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,897
• Household income: $124,318
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 571.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.02%
• Current HPI: 289.8992
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-22 Coming Soon $159,900 BRIGHT MLS