2571 Chateaugay St · Fort Covington, NY 12937

$139,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1900 0.27 ac lot $81/sqft · 7% below area Est $150k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 4/1.5 home conveniently located in the Town of Fort Covington a 5 minute walk to Ruby's diner and East End Convenience Store. You feel the warmth and charm of this home from the moment you enter. You're greeted by tons of natural light from the large windows facing a well kept back yard. You then move on to the galley kitchen with it's perfectly situated coffee/breakfast nook area. From the kitchen there is a Laundry with additional storage. The dining room has a wood burning fireplace which can be seen from the den as well. There is a roomy comfortable enclosed porch gracing the eastern wall off the den which provides additional space for entertaining on those warm seasonal evenings. Upstairs you'll find 4 spacious bedrooms with closets and tons of extra storage area as well as a full bathroom. Pride of ownership comes through at every turn in this beautiful home. You won't be disappointed, book your viewing today! Please remove shoes at entrance.

Key facts

• Galley kitchen
• Extra storage area
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• GALLEY KITCHEN
• COFFEE BREAKFAST NOOK
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• EXTRA STORAGE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Salmon River Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #545 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -6.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2606 State Route 37	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,868 (+9%)	2mo	$150,000	$80	71
4 Covington Street St	0.20mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,720 (0%)	19mo	$80,000	$47	68
723 Salmon St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,826 (+6%)	21mo	$99,900	$55	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $80,697
• Equity at exit: $122,838

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $230,953
• Equity at exit: $261,575

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12937

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,556/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $158	+0% $118	+5% $78	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $66	+0% $118	+5% $170	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $154	base $118	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $149,900 Active 975-char remark

    Show marketing remark (975 chars)

    Lovely 4/1.5 home conveniently located in the Town of Fort Covington a 5 minute walk to Ruby's diner and East End Convenience Store. You feel the warmth and charm of this home from the moment you enter. You're greeted by tons of natural light from the large windows facing a well kept back yard. You then move on to the galley kitchen with it's perfectly situated coffee/breakfast nook area. From the kitchen there is a Laundry with additional storage. The dining room has a wood burning fireplace which can be seen from the den as well. There is a roomy comfortable enclosed porch gracing the eastern wall off the den which provides additional space for entertaining on those warm seasonal evenings. Upstairs you'll find 4 spacious bedrooms with closets and tons of extra storage area as well as a full bathroom. Pride of ownership comes through at every turn in this beautiful home. You won't be disappointed, book your viewing today! Please remove shoes at entrance.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$404/yr (+$34/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,556
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,263
• − Management: −$1,263
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $1,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salmon River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625500
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,710
• Composite: 32.24/100
• National rank: #5770
• State rank: #545 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Covington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Covington, NY
• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 1,340

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Native American 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Italian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.69%
• Current HPI: 273.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $149,900 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,556 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.