50 Old Lantern Dr · Stockbridge, GA 30281

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1981 0.68 ac lot Est $235k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Awesome Vinyl & Stone Ranch - 3 Bedroom 2 Full Bath - 2 Car Garage - Open Living Room With Stone Fireplace and LVP Flooring - Spacious Eat-In Kitchen - Huge Laundry and Pantry Area - Large Master Suite With Private Master Bath - Roof Only a Few Years Old - Very Well Maintained Home - So Much Potential Throughout - Just Needs A Touch Of Personality and Fresh Paint To Make It Your Own - Perfect For First-Time Homebuyers - Downsizers - Growing Families Or Anyone Looking For A Move-In Ready Home With Room To Customize - Situated On A . 68 Acre Lot With Plenty Of Space To Enjoy - Call Agent Today For Private Showing!!

Key facts

• Open living room
• Vinyl & stone ranch
• Stone fireplace

Tags

• VINYL & STONE RANCH
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• STONE FIREPLACE
• LVP FLOORING
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• HUGE LAUNDRY AND PANTRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($733/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.3% in Stockbridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#389 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cotton Indian Elementary School (math 10% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,025 of 1,228 statewide, top 84%, 573 students, 67% FRL); Austin Road Middle School (math 15% / reading 35%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Stockbridge High School (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #284 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,543 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 586 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $235k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,970 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,056
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Old Lantern Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,416 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$166	99
15 Lamp Post Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-1%)	9mo	$207,500	$148	87
115 Carriage Trce	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-1%)	9mo	$165,000	$118	78
25 Carriage Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-5%)	11mo	$247,900	$184	74
69 Trace Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-5%)	11mo	$246,000	$184	62
190 Sagebrush Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-1%)	22mo	$203,500	$145	60
210 Carriage Circle Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,471 (+4%)	22mo	$265,000	$180	58
981 E Atlanta Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-5%)	9mo	$227,500	$169	53
200 Carriage	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+7%)	23mo	$250,000	$165	48
1768 E Atlanta Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,252 (-12%)	20mo	$115,000	$92	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-38,136
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,722
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30281

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $555/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 Glenloch Pkwy Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,881	$1.18	15d	1	0.72mi
479 Lakeshore Dr Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,750	$1.37	5d	1	0.75mi
422 Hawthorne Cir Stockbridge, GA	4.0	1.5	1488	$1,756	$1.18	13d	1	0.87mi
335 Edna Dr Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,645	$1.25	13d	1	0.88mi
424 Azalea Dr Stockbridge, GA	4.0	2.0	1550	$1,615	$1.04	44d	1	0.98mi
1515 Flat Rock Rd Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,536	$0.90	5d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-21
   price $235,000
3. 2026-04-15
   price $229,000
4. 2026-03-11
   listed $250,000 New
5. 1999-07-06
   soldstatus $94,900
6. 1985-08-01
   soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $555 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,162 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,607/yr (+$134/mo · 289.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$555
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$813
• After-tax cash flow: $1,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Stockbridge

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #19479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 106,165
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 71,603
• Household income: $71,213
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2464.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.76%
• Current HPI: 207.2332
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.87%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+267.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $235,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $229,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $250,000 GAMLS
• 1999-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $555 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.