14463 Dalia Ave · Vero Beach South, FL 34951

$28,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 154 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $39k · 29% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your slice of paradise in the vibrant, 55+ Spanish Lakes Fairways community! This immaculate 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is the perfect turn-key opportunity for those seeking comfortable, low-maintenance Florida living. Step inside to discover a thoughtful split floor plan that offers privacy and space, with beautiful laminate flooring throughout. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the living areas, making it ideal for everyday living or entertaining friends and neighbors. The spacious living room opens to a wonderful screened patio (with windows for year-round enjoyment), where you can relax with your morning coffee or enjoy the gentle Florida breezes. Additional highlights i

Key facts

• Screened patio
• A/c
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SCREENED PATIO
• LARGE CARPORT
• 8X11 SHED
• A/C
• WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (possible pet restrictions)
• Financial info: Rented lot
• HOA & community: Community has an association; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, sauna, billiard room, game room, golf course, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court, bocce ball, library, and baseball/softball field; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered/carport space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (modular); Single-story; Faces north; Resale condition
• Construction: Modular construction
• Exterior features: Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 61.0% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 61.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 195.39%
• DSCR: 9.69
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $39,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15112 Aguila Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	3mo	$35,000	$41	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.80×
• Total profit: $76,794
• Equity at exit: $4,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.90×
• Total profit: $171,675
• Equity at exit: $2,421

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $1,277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $245

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,296	-5% $1,286	+0% $1,277	+5% $1,267	+10% $1,257
Rent	-10% $1,130	-5% $1,203	+0% $1,277	+5% $1,350	+10% $1,424
Rate	-1.0pp $1,291	-0.5pp $1,284	base $1,277	+0.5pp $1,269	+1.0pp $1,262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $28,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $28,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $28,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $28,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $28,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $28,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $28,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $28,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $28,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $28,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-03-29
    price $28,000
15. 2026-01-12
    listed $30,000 Active
16. 2026-01-01
    historical
17. 2025-10-22
    price $33,000
18. 2025-10-22
    status Active
19. 2025-10-21
    historical
20. 2025-08-29
    price $36,000
21. 2025-03-19
    price $38,000
22. 2025-03-05
    price $39,500
23. 2025-01-23
    price $42,000
24. 2024-11-18
    listed $46,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $15,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,795
• After-tax cash flow: $11,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-39.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $28,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $30,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $33,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-21 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $36,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $38,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $39,500 Beaches MLS
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $42,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-11-18 Listed $46,500 Beaches MLS