245 Secretariat Ln · Rayne, LA 70578

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Manufactured · 116 Days on market

0.44 ac lot Est $166k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country setting located minutes from I-10 between Duson and Rayne. Nice subdivision and large lot.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Functional layout
• 0.44 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE FRONT AND BACK YARD
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• WELL MAINTAINED INTERIOR
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Home design: Manufactured home
• Exterior features: Other siding

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Central heating and central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.7% in Rayne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in LA, #3,895 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Acadia Parish (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #28 of 98 in LA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martin Petitjean Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #224 of 646 statewide, top 37%, 342 students, 85% FRL); Armstrong Middle School (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #135 of 218 statewide, top 62%, 340 students, 79% FRL); Rayne High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #88 of 265 statewide, top 33%, 640 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Acadia Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $120k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.72%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,320
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 Oak Manor Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,369 (-1%)	3mo	$165,000	$121	86
106 Majestic Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	17mo	$85,000	$63	71
259 Oak Manor Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (+14%)	11mo	$189,900	$120	55
182 Oak Manor Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	20mo	$181,000	$115	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,672
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $58,746
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70578

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $911

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $620	-5% $586	+0% $552	+5% $518	+10% $484
Rent	-10% $425	-5% $488	+0% $552	+5% $616	+10% $679
Rate	-1.0pp $612	-0.5pp $583	base $552	+0.5pp $521	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $125,000
18. 2026-03-17
    price $130,000
19. 2026-03-05
    price $135,000
20. 2026-02-24
    listed $140,000 Active
21. 2022-01-13
    soldstatus
22. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 2015-10-29
    listed $74,985
24. 2015-09-25
    soldstatus $34,180 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Country setting located minutes from I-10 between Duson and Rayne. Nice subdivision and large lot.

25. 2015-06-05
    listed $36,000 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Country setting located minutes from I-10 between Duson and Rayne. Nice subdivision and large lot.

26. 2006-06-07
    soldstatus
27. 2003-11-14
    listed $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 36.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,183
• After-tax cash flow: $5,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Acadia Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $38,012
• Composite: 31.65/100
• National rank: #5929
• State rank: #28 of 98 in LA

Livability — Rayne

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #3895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,279
• Population (ZIP): 16,279

Population outlook (Acadia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,846 people
• By 2030: 64,141 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 63,922 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 62,263 · -2.5%
• By 2075: 56,507 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 46,316 · -27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Acadia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -45.7pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+60.3 2016: R+56.7 2012: R+49.8 2008: R+45.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.19%
• Current HPI: 118.9619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+825.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $125,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $130,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $135,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $140,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-29 Listed $74,985 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-09-25 Sold (MLS) $34,180 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-06-05 Listed $36,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-14 Listed $13,500 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.