5582 Winding Way · Montezuma, OH 45822

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1958 5,227 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape the noise and unwind by the water. Tucked away in Bass Landing on the south side of Grand Lake, this adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath cottage offers the perfect place to slow down and enjoy life's simpler moments. Situated on deeded ground directly along the channel, you'll have easy access to the lake while enjoying a peaceful setting to relax and recharge. Fully furnished and move-in ready, this cozy retreat is ideal as a weekend escape, seasonal getaway, or low-maintenance year-round home. Spend your mornings sipping coffee by the water, your afternoons exploring the lake, and your evenings enjoying the tranquility that only waterfront living can provide. All that's missing is you.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Deeded ground
• Waterfront living

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIVING
• DEEDED GROUND
• EASY ACCESS TO THE LAKE
• FULLY FURNISHED
• MOVE-IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Bass Lndg subdivision; Directions: From SR 127, take SR 219 to Karafit Rd, turn onto Cottonwood Dr, then turn onto Winding Way; property is at 5582 Winding Way.
• HOA & community: Association with $500 annual fee; Association fee includes snow removal

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1958
• Construction: Log construction; Combination foundation
• Exterior features: Dock; Deck; Shed(s); Lakefront setting with lake views

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall and window cooling units; Other heating (see remarks)
• Interior features: Skylights; Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($96/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#785 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Celina City (town): math 64% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #299 of 656 in OH (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,968 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-25,420
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,555
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45822

• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,144/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,320

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $53	+0% $8	+5% $-37	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-45	+0% $8	+5% $61	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $49	base $8	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $159,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 694-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $164,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,144 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,819 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$675/yr (+$56/mo · 59.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,144
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,652
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina City
• NCES district ID: 3910030
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,168
• Composite: 50.44/100
• National rank: #1864
• State rank: #299 of 656 in OH

Livability — Montezuma

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #14269

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer · 42,068 people
• City population: 100
• Population (ZIP): 20,170
• Household income: $72,106
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 15.9

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,163 people
• By 2030: 39,367 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 37,406 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 34,917 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 28,969 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 21,338 · -46.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.3% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.9 2016: R+65.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.25%
• Current HPI: 204.0486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+9.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $164,900 WRIST
• 2005-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,144 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.