4509 Haywood St · Houston, TX 77093

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1948 7,949 sqft lot $56/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This investor special is ready to be remodeled, offering a blank canvas for you to make your mark. This two bedroom, one bathroom home has no HOA, and the property sits in a spacious lot. Additionally, there is a convenient detached garage shed located in the back. This is a perfect opportunity to bring your vision to life.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Detached garage shed
• 7,949 sq ft lot

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.48%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,402
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -52.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4621 Wiley Rd	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,338 (-6%)	0mo	$199,000	$149	81
5110 Noldale Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,464 (+3%)	9mo	$150,000	$102	52
10320 Caxton St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+6%)	16mo	$260,000	$173	36
5421 Westbrook Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (+14%)	22mo	$289,000	$180	22
5619 Pate Rd Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,581 (+12%)	23mo	$290,000	$183	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,234
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $25,540
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77093

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,991/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	20d	1	0.85mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	43d	1	1.11mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	1.18mi
2530 Aldon St Unit 2530B Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $80,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    This investor special is ready to be remodeled, offering a blank canvas for you to make your mark. This two bedroom, one bathroom home has no HOA, and the property sits in a spacious lot. Additionally, there is a convenient detached garage shed located in the back. This is a perfect opportunity to bring your vision to life.

16. 2026-03-12
    historical
17. 2026-01-02
    status Active
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-08-21
    listed $84,500 Active
20. 2025-08-20
    historical
21. 2025-07-02
    status Active
22. 2025-06-30
    historical
23. 2025-06-17
    price $85,000
24. 2025-03-06
    listed $100,000 Active
25. 2025-03-05
    historical
26. 2024-11-18
    price $110,000
27. 2024-09-22
    price $125,000
28. 2024-08-08
    listed $135,000 Active
29. 2002-09-30
    soldstatus
30. 1989-06-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,991
• − Insurance: −$5,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$144
• After-tax cash flow: $1,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,407
• Household income: $46,766
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% Black 11% White 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.53%
• Current HPI: 277.4914
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $84,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-22 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2002-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,991 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.