15 Dover Walk #1015 · Toms River, NJ 08753

$184,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Condo public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition $188/sqft · 11% above area Est $167k · 11% over $341/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for an affordable 2 bedroom single story condo in a convenient location, your search is over. Located in Dover Walk, Toms River, this 55+ condo community is minutes to the parkway & Rte 9. Central to shopping & about 15 minutes to the beach. Just under 1000 sq ft, this charming condo features hardwood floors throughout except for the bathroom, where a brand new waterproof LVP has just been installed. Recent updates-professionally painted in a warm neutral, new stove hood, new bathroom light fixture, new exhaust fan/light & new faucet in the kitchen. The tub/shower combination was replaced a few years ago. Plenty of closets, including 2 walk-ins in the primary, 2 coat closets (one could be a pantry) & a linen closet. My facvorite feature- the screened in porch-a perfect place to enjoy your morning coffee, evening wine or just enjoy the fresh air while having the protection from the sun and the rain. Call today for your private showing.

Key facts

• Close to bay
• Screened-in porch
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CLOSE TO BEACH
• CLOSE TO BAY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with common areas; Monthly association fee of $341; HOA covers common area, lawn maintenance, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Attached property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Stove hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dishwasher, Dryer, Electric cooking, Light fixtures, Stove hood, Refrigerator; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $184k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,965 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.66%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,803
• List price: $184,500
• Delta: 10.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,235
• Equity at exit: $27,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,132
• Equity at exit: $15,952

Cash invested: $51,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,736/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$341
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $184,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $382	+0% $330	+5% $277	+10% $225
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $237	+0% $330	+5% $423	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $377	base $330	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,125
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit A4 Toms River, NJ	1.0	2.0	990	$2,045	$2.07	44d	1	0.36mi
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit D9 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	44d	1	0.36mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	25d	1	0.39mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$1,994	$2.12	44d	1	0.39mi
3600 Cypress Point Dr Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,964	$2.53	2d	18	0.60mi
30 Green View Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1450	$2,682	$1.85	1d	1	0.85mi
83 Walnut St Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	722	$1,800	$2.49	1d	2	1.19mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $341 · $4,092/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,500 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,500 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,500 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,500 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,500 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,500 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,500 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,500 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,500 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,500 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,500 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,500 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,500 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,500 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $184,500 Active 879-char remark
16. 2025-06-23
    soldstatus $132,000
17. 2025-06-02
    soldstatus $132,000 Closed 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    If you are looking for an affordable 2 bedroom single story condo in a convenient location, your search is over. Located in Dover Walk, Toms River, this 55+ condo community is minutes to the parkway & Rte 9. Central to shopping & about 15 minutes to the beach. Just under 1000 sq ft, this charming condo features hardwood floors throughout except for the bathroom, where a brand new waterproof LVP has just been installed. Recent updates-professionally painted in a warm neutral, new stove hood, new bathroom light fixture, new exhaust fan/light & new faucet in the kitchen. The tub/shower combination was replaced a few years ago. Plenty of closets, including 2 walk-ins in the primary, 2 coat closets (one could be a pantry) & a linen closet. My facvorite feature- the screened in porch-a perfect place to enjoy your morning coffee, evening wine or just enjoy the fresh air while having the protection from the sun and the rain. Call today for your private showing.

18. 2025-05-08
    status Pending 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    If you are looking for an affordable 2 bedroom single story condo in a convenient location, your search is over. Located in Dover Walk, Toms River, this 55+ condo community is minutes to the parkway & Rte 9. Central to shopping & about 15 minutes to the beach. Just under 1000 sq ft, this charming condo features hardwood floors throughout except for the bathroom, where a brand new waterproof LVP has just been installed. Recent updates-professionally painted in a warm neutral, new stove hood, new bathroom light fixture, new exhaust fan/light & new faucet in the kitchen. The tub/shower combination was replaced a few years ago. Plenty of closets, including 2 walk-ins in the primary, 2 coat closets (one could be a pantry) & a linen closet. My facvorite feature- the screened in porch-a perfect place to enjoy your morning coffee, evening wine or just enjoy the fresh air while having the protection from the sun and the rain. Call today for your private showing.

19. 2025-03-15
    price $154,900 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    If you are looking for an affordable 2 bedroom single story condo in a convenient location, your search is over. Located in Dover Walk, Toms River, this 55+ condo community is minutes to the parkway & Rte 9. Central to shopping & about 15 minutes to the beach. Just under 1000 sq ft, this charming condo features hardwood floors throughout except for the bathroom, where a brand new waterproof LVP has just been installed. Recent updates-professionally painted in a warm neutral, new stove hood, new bathroom light fixture, new exhaust fan/light & new faucet in the kitchen. The tub/shower combination was replaced a few years ago. Plenty of closets, including 2 walk-ins in the primary, 2 coat closets (one could be a pantry) & a linen closet. My facvorite feature- the screened in porch-a perfect place to enjoy your morning coffee, evening wine or just enjoy the fresh air while having the protection from the sun and the rain. Call today for your private showing.

20. 2025-02-12
    listed $160,000 Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    If you are looking for an affordable 2 bedroom single story condo in a convenient location, your search is over. Located in Dover Walk, Toms River, this 55+ condo community is minutes to the parkway & Rte 9. Central to shopping & about 15 minutes to the beach. Just under 1000 sq ft, this charming condo features hardwood floors throughout except for the bathroom, where a brand new waterproof LVP has just been installed. Recent updates-professionally painted in a warm neutral, new stove hood, new bathroom light fixture, new exhaust fan/light & new faucet in the kitchen. The tub/shower combination was replaced a few years ago. Plenty of closets, including 2 walk-ins in the primary, 2 coat closets (one could be a pantry) & a linen closet. My facvorite feature- the screened in porch-a perfect place to enjoy your morning coffee, evening wine or just enjoy the fresh air while having the protection from the sun and the rain. Call today for your private showing.

21. 2004-09-14
    soldstatus $84,000
22. 1994-05-31
    soldstatus $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,165 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,429/yr (+$119/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,335
• − Property taxes: −$1,736
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − HOA: −$4,092
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable income: $1,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$306
• After-tax cash flow: $3,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo is in good condition with recent updates and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and has the potential to be further enhanced with some cosmetic updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen countertops — The countertops appear worn and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or a new surface.
• Minor Bathroom tub/shower — The tub and shower appear dated and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or a new surface.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Updating the interior walls with fresh paint can make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replacing the kitchen countertops — Replacing worn countertops with new ones can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and functionality.
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom fixtures can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · The countertops appear worn and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or a new surface.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom tub/shower · The tub and shower appear dated and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint or a new surface.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Updating the interior walls with fresh paint can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replacing the kitchen countertops — Replacing worn countertops with new ones can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and functionality. ↑
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom fixtures can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+428.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $184,500 MOMLS
• 2025-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-02 Sold (MLS) $132,000 MOMLS
• 2025-05-08 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $154,900 MOMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $160,000 MOMLS
• 2004-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,736 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.