1250 Aztec Rd · Badger, AK 99705

$285,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1968 0.98 ac lot $469/sqft · 195% above area Est $460k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large shop (31'x32') with 10' high overhead door & 12' ceiling, also an additional garage with lower 9' ceiling. There is an attached 2 bed one bath appt. on one side and a second one bedroom, one bathroom appt. on the other side of the shop, both are approx. 550 sq. ft. each. Unfinished addition upstairs (37'x47') with electrical in. Huge canopy for outside storage, 2 separate out buildings. Buyer to verify sq. . footage. Adjacent lot next door is also for sale and a package deal may be negotiated.

Key facts

• 0.98 acre lot
• 6 garage spots
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, crime F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,357 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $459,546
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -34.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-53,830
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-43,694
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,463/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,302

Max offer price $251,732

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-108	+0% $-188	+5% $-269	+10% $-350
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-270	+0% $-188	+5% $-107	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-116	base $-188	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $285,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 604-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
19. 2026-03-18
    listed $299,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Large shop (31'x32') with 10' high overhead door & 12' ceiling, also an additional garage with lower 9' ceiling. There is an attached 2 bed one bath appt. on one side and a second one bedroom, one bathroom appt. on the other side of the shop, both are approx. 550 sq. ft. each. Unfinished addition upstairs (37'x47') with electrical in. Huge canopy for outside storage, 2 separate out buildings. Buyer to verify sq. . footage. Adjacent lot next door is also for sale and a package deal may be negotiated.

20. 2019-08-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,463 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,927 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,463
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $299,000 GFBR
• 2019-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,463 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.