Sundowner Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$116,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of comfort and affordability with the Sundowner. This spacious home is packed with premium features designed for modern family living. You'll love the expansive dining area, large kitchen island, and a huge utility room perfect for laundry day. The massive living room is the ideal gathering spot for family and friends. With four bedrooms, there's plenty of space for everyone. Key features include: Air conditioning Breakfast bar Double sinks in bathroom Kitchen island Built with Clayton's innovative eBuilt system, the Sundowner incorporates over 25 eco-friendly features without compromising on comfort or style.

Key facts

• Listed 71 days

🏗️ New construction. The $116,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $499,837.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 6.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,975 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.05%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 20.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $499,837
• List price: $116,995
• Delta: -76.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
93 White Bluff Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,560 (-4%)	12mo	$99,000	$63	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-206,031
• Equity at exit: $74,527

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.54×
• Total profit: $-355,459
• Equity at exit: $43,217

Cash invested: $139,954 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,621
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-1,871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,372

Max offer price $229,033

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,959
• Closing costs: $14,995
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Hollis Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,945	$1.21	14d	1	0.28mi
315 Nottingham Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,800	$1.35	10d	1	0.28mi
100 Maplewood S Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,700	$1.01	43d	1	0.51mi
314 Paddington Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,799	$1.32	17d	1	0.67mi
232 Buttercup Way Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,695	$1.21	23d	1	0.69mi
387 Paddington Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1537	$1,795	$1.17	17d	1	0.71mi
119 Peppergrass Cv Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2101	$2,050	$0.98	4d	1	0.78mi
220 Peppergrass Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1799	$1,875	$1.04	14d	1	0.87mi
364 Westminster Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,925	$1.20	44d	1	0.90mi
3700 Dacy Ln Kyle, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1182	$1,649	$1.39	4d	1	0.93mi
228 Pearl Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,725	$1.20	23d	1	1.01mi
228 Pearl Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,725	$1.20	21d	1	1.01mi
124 Lago Grande Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2024	$1,995	$0.99	43d	1	1.12mi
289 Lake Washington Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,699	$1.22	12d	1	1.13mi
117 Mood Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2120	$2,170	$1.02	2d	1	1.18mi
179 Sweetwater Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,995	$1.13	12d	1	1.25mi
205 Mood Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,595	$1.12	23d	1	1.27mi
205 Mood Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,595	$1.12	21d	1	1.27mi
109 Granite Shoals Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,700	$1.30	4d	1	1.32mi
145 Greenbelt Reservoir Pass Unit 1546380P Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1528	$3,393	$2.22	14d	1	1.37mi
204 Inks Ln Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2150	$1,995	$0.93	12d	1	1.38mi
401 Town Lake Bnd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1785	$2,250	$1.26	43d	1	1.43mi
416 Purple Martin Ave Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	23d	1	1.43mi
411 Town Lake Bnd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1681	$2,025	$1.20	17d	1	1.43mi
931 Brandi Cir Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,750	$1.30	4d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $116,995 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $116,995 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $116,995 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $116,995 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $116,995 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $116,995 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $116,995 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $116,995 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $116,995 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $116,995 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $116,995 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $116,995 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $116,995 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    listed $116,995 Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of comfort and affordability with the Sundowner. This spacious home is packed with premium features designed for modern family living. You'll love the expansive dining area, large kitchen island, and a huge utility room perfect for laundry day. The massive living room is the ideal gathering spot for family and friends. With four bedrooms, there's plenty of space for everyone. Key features include: Air conditioning Breakfast bar Double sinks in bathroom Kitchen island Built with Clayton's innovative eBuilt system, the Sundowner incorporates over 25 eco-friendly features without compromising on comfort or style.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,999
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$2,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$14,541
• Taxable loss: −$32,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Sundowner home in Kyle, TX is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, spacious bathroom, and well-maintained exterior. The home is ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $116,995 Zillow