15411 Formaston Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$330,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2020 5,039 sqft lot $132/sqft · at area comps Est $334k · at est. $13/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 15411 Formaston Dr. , a spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offering approximately 2,500 sq. ft. of living space in the sought-after Balmoral community of Humble. Built in 2020, this home features a functional open-concept layout with abundant natural light and generously sized living areas designed for comfortable everyday living. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space and opens seamlessly to the main living area, making it ideal for entertaining and gathering. The primary suite provides a private retreat with an en-suite bath and spacious closet space, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, work, or hobbies. HUD case #512-435595. All propertie

Key facts

• 5,039 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential
• HOA & community: Community managed by Principal Management Group; Annual association fee of $150; Community amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pool, tennis courts and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property (built in 2020); Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 2020
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not specified separately)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Thermostat listed as an energy-efficient feature
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Creek El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,125 students, 74% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Summer Creek H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,600 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 32% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,398 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,890
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -1.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15214 Monal Trie Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,734 (+9%)	1mo	$369,900	$135	73
15639 Scolty Reach Ln	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,490 (-0%)	2mo	$411,000	$165	72
15155 Silky Morning Ct	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,429 (-3%)	1mo	$340,000	$140	69
12430 Ashgrove Point Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,348 (-6%)	0mo	$335,000	$143	68
12638 Banchory Leaf Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,334 (-7%)	2mo	$395,000	$169	66
15215 Westburn Loch Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,586 (+3%)	2mo	$335,000	$130	62
15014 Misty Summer Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,436 (-3%)	2mo	$295,000	$121	61
15626 Beltie Dr	0.43mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,727 (+9%)	2mo	$369,850	$136	54
15666 Countesswells Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,714 (+9%)	0mo	$420,000	$155	50
12102 Talmadge Reach Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,303 (-8%)	2mo	$368,000	$160	45
12810 Raemoir	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,772 (+11%)	2mo	$429,990	$155	45
12043 Talmadge Reach Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,775 (+11%)	2mo	$429,990	$155	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-59,363
• Equity at exit: $80,385

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-88,972
• Equity at exit: $85,030

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$724 /mo · $8,693/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,298

Max offer price $253,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-247	-5% $-340	+0% $-434	+5% $-527	+10% $-620
Rent	-10% $-651	-5% $-542	+0% $-434	+5% $-325	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-267	-0.5pp $-350	base $-434	+0.5pp $-519	+1.0pp $-606

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	4d	1	0.47mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	45d	1	0.47mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	3d	1	0.50mi
12138 Loch Muick Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,411	$1.28	7d	1	0.65mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,871	$1.09	0d	1	0.75mi
15713 Saxton Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1643	$2,099	$1.28	0d	35	0.80mi
11942 California Sister Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	26d	1	0.80mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	3d	1	0.90mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,676	$1.00	0d	1	0.95mi
11347 Needlerock Ct Unit 1310533P Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	3239	$9,388	$2.90	45d	1	1.25mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	1.28mi
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2554	$2,600	$1.02	46d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $330,000 Active 971-char remark
17. 2025-06-24
    status Pending
18. 2025-06-11
    status Pending
19. 2025-06-04
    status Option Pending
20. 2025-06-04
    historical
21. 2025-05-22
    price $290,000
22. 2025-03-21
    price $290,400
23. 2025-03-21
    listed $330,000 Active
24. 2025-03-21
    historical
25. 2025-03-21
    price $330,000
26. 2025-02-12
    price $335,000
27. 2025-01-14
    listed $345,000 Active
28. 2024-12-27
    historical
29. 2024-12-09
    price $345,000
30. 2024-11-27
    listed $295,000 Active
31. 2024-11-25
    historical
32. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2021-03-23
    listed $259,999 Active
34. 2021-03-23
    status Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,693 · $724/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,693 · $724/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$8,693
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$10,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,609
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $290,400 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-27 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-23 Listed $259,999 HARMLS
• 2021-03-23 Pending — HARMLS

Property tax history

+73.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,693 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.