421 Allen Way · Turlock, CA 95380

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

Built 1972 $66/sqft · 6% below area Est $84k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering approximately 1,200 sq. ft. of living space in Daisy Belle Mobile Home Park. Space includes water, garbage, and sewer. Features include central heat and air, living room with built-in hutch, and a 1-car covered carport. Community amenities include pool, spa, and clubhouse.

Key facts

• Living space
• Central heat and air
• Covered carport

Tags

• LIVING SPACE
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $901 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.90%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,843
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -5.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
425 20th Century Blvd Unit C19	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	21mo	$78,000	$65	79
408 Sue St	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	12mo	$78,000	$58	69
1228 Magic Sands	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,098 (-8%)	9mo	$83,000	$76	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $41,501
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $97,750
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $901

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Pedras Rd Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,650	$1.90	14d	1	0.40mi
1101 Park St Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	13d	1	0.73mi
1700 N Tully Rd Turlock, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,795	$2.01	13d	1	0.77mi
1031 Kenwood Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	14d	1	0.79mi
475 Georgetown Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,350	$1.95	21d	1	0.86mi
1240 N Olive Ave Unit B Turlock, CA	2.0	1.5	750	$1,650	$2.20	14d	1	0.87mi
1317 Colorado Ave Turlock, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,445	$1.93	13d	1	1.06mi
1808 Colorado Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.5	1340	$1,795	$1.34	14d	1	1.14mi
3108 James Ln Unit 3118 Turlock, CA	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,800	$1.58	14d	1	1.18mi
402 S Laurel St Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	14d	1	1.19mi
731 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	14d	1	1.23mi
920 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,550	$2.05	13d	1	1.23mi
351 E Monte Vista Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	684	$1,955	$2.86	13d	11	1.27mi
1055 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,000	$1.56	43d	1	1.27mi
1193 East Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	1.0	1206	$2,150	$1.78	14d	1	1.28mi
1412 Cahill St Unit CA1412-Melo, Ernest Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	829	$1,425	$1.72	14d	1	1.28mi
2541 Carnival Dr Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,295	$1.75	43d	1	1.29mi
295 South Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	751	$1,595	$2.12	14d	1	1.38mi
3600 Nicole Ct Unit 3600 Turlock, CA	3.0	2.5	1358	$1,950	$1.44	14d	1	1.41mi
3492 Gerald Ct Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1166	$2,250	$1.93	14d	1	1.46mi
3623 La Mancha Pl Turlock, CA	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,700	$1.40	14d	1	1.46mi
3637 Nicole Ct Unit 3637 Turlock, CA	3.0	2.5	1358	$1,950	$1.44	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $79,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $79,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $10,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,439
• After-tax cash flow: $8,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B