1407 N 9th St · Alpine, TX 79830

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,963 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1940 0.44 ac lot $61/sqft · 24% below area Est $158k · 24% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1963 sf Stucco Home sits on 2 Lots, Completely Fenced, with lots of trees and vegetation, and a Metal Roof. Separate 798 sf detached garage with area that could be used as a small apartment with a covered patio and lots of room for storage. This home features a screened in front porch, many rooms with windows offering tons of natural light, with many possibilities. Seller motivated.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Completely fenced
• Covered patio

Tags

• STUCCO HOME
• COMPLETELY FENCED
• METAL ROOF
• DETACHED GARAGE
• COVERED PATIO
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 covered space; Parking pad; Total 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Metal roof; Slab and pier/pillar/post foundation; Built on a 0.44-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Corner lot; Paved road access; Solar energy generation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (natural gas); Has central cooling
• Interior features: Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#73 in TX, #2,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpine El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 377 students, 47% FRL); Alpine Middle (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 269 students, 58% FRL); Alpine H S (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 308 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.60%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,683
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -23.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1406 N 7th St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,732 (-12%)	2mo	$189,900	$110	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $13,808
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $55,063
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79830

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,812/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $555	+0% $521	+5% $487	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $377	-5% $449	+0% $521	+5% $593	+10% $664
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $551	base $521	+0.5pp $490	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 E Stockton St Alpine, TX	3.0	2.0	2552	$1,500	$0.59	15d	1	0.40mi
2401 Covey Ln Alpine, TX	4.0	2.5	2208	$1,800	$0.82	15d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $120,000 Active 392-char remark
18. 2018-03-12
    soldstatus 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    1963 sf Stucco Home sits on 2 Lots, Completely Fenced, with lots of trees and vegetation, and a Metal Roof. Separate 798 sf detached garage with area that could be used as a small apartment with a covered patio and lots of room for storage. This home features a screened in front porch, many rooms with windows offering tons of natural light, with many possibilities. Seller motivated.

19. 2018-03-09
    soldstatus
20. 2017-10-12
    listed $129,000 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    1963 sf Stucco Home sits on 2 Lots, Completely Fenced, with lots of trees and vegetation, and a Metal Roof. Separate 798 sf detached garage with area that could be used as a small apartment with a covered patio and lots of room for storage. This home features a screened in front porch, many rooms with windows offering tons of natural light, with many possibilities. Seller motivated.

21. 1976-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,812 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,812 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥95°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,812
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,743
• − Management: −$1,743
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,679
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $5,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,184
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3814
• State rank: #235 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alpine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #2631

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alpine, TX
• County: Brewster County · 7,853 people
• City population: 7,853
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,853
• Household income: $66,546
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 229.0

Population outlook (Brewster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,850 people
• By 2030: 8,577 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 7,903 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 7,338 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 5,950 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,678 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brewster

• 2024 margin: R (+12.6) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: -12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.6 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+4.8 2012: R+5.4 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.21%
• Current HPI: 178.4899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 ODMLS
• 2018-03-12 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2018-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-12 Listed $129,000 ODMLS
• 1976-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,812 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.