406 Winona St · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$59,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1940 $65/sqft · 50% below area Est $119k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss out on this cute 2 bedroom, 1 bath home featuring nice sized living room with fireplace, kitchen/dining combo, laundry room addition on rear, and carport parking, (roof repair around chimney has just been completed, but seller not repairing ceiling inside). Also has detached structure that has living room, bedroom and bath, and workshop area on the rear, then other large shop/storage structures as well. Property included 2 lots/parcels, don't miss this opportunity to own a house with a place for a business right next door! Property sold as-is, agents please see confidential remarks for additional information and showing instructions.

Key facts

• Carport parking
• Kitchen dining combo
• Detached

Tags

• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• LAUNDRY ROOM ADDITION
• CARPORT PARKING
• DETACHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Potential financing: other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Utilities: other (see remarks)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Rock and frame exterior; Paved road access; Lot located inside city limits; Lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl; Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning site-built fireplace; Carpet, wood, vinyl and other flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hot Springs Junior Academy (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #166 of 201 statewide, top 84%, 815 students, 100% FRL, charter); Hot Springs World Class High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #252 of 292 statewide, top 87%, 739 students, 100% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,001 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.81%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,945
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: -49.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Trivista Left	0.34mi	2/1.0	864 (-7%)	7mo	$99,000	$115	67
601 Trivista Left St	0.37mi	2/2.0	980 (+6%)	9mo	$180,000	$184	62
110 Forest Park	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+10%)	4mo	$160,000	$157	61
114 Flag St	0.41mi	2/1.0	884 (-5%)	16mo	$20,000	$23	59
126 Morrison Ave Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+9%)	16mo	$198,000	$196	58
731 Linwood Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,042 (+12%)	9mo	$157,000	$151	57
107 Liberty St	0.53mi	2/1.0	828 (-11%)	3mo	$145,000	$175	54
204 First	0.46mi	2/1.0	840 (-10%)	10mo	$97,500	$116	54
231 Garland Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (+10%)	10mo	$160,000	$156	46
604 Third St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	860 (-7%)	15mo	$75,000	$87	46
218 First St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+14%)	15mo	$115,000	$109	40
105 Maylou Ter	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,044 (+12%)	15mo	$139,900	$134	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $24,182
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $76,513
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $360/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $467

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $506	-5% $490	+0% $473	+5% $456	+10% $439
Rent	-10% $388	-5% $430	+0% $473	+5% $515	+10% $557
Rate	-1.0pp $503	-0.5pp $488	base $473	+0.5pp $457	+1.0pp $441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Selma St Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	832	$950	$1.14	45d	1	0.12mi
109 Alcorn St Unit A Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	46d	1	0.21mi
410 Oakwood Ave Hot Springs, AR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$999	$1.00	45d	6	0.78mi
143 Alpine St Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	0.82mi
125 Oak St Unit 1-306 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.0	970	$1,200	$1.24	45d	1	0.87mi
125 Oak St Unit 1-404 Hot Springs, AR	1.0	1.0	783	$1,175	$1.50	45d	1	0.87mi
125 Oak St Unit 1-307 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	45d	1	0.88mi
627 Quapaw Ave Unit 2 Hot Springs, AR	1.0	1.0	775	$950	$1.23	45d	1	0.92mi
315 Convention Blvd Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	45d	4	1.29mi
405 Spring St Unit 2 Hot Springs, AR	1.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $59,900 Under Contract 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $59,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   historical
7. 2026-04-17
   listed $64,900 Active
8. 2025-06-05
   soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$360
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $4,981
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $4,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+10.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $59,900 CARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $64,900 CARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $360 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.