902 Pecos River Dr · Granbury, TX 76048

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2017 3,049 sqft lot $149/sqft · 10% above area Est $182k · 10% over $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you walk inside, you’re immediately struck by how open and refreshed the space feels. The kitchen has been completely updated with brand-new shaker-style cabinets in a crisp white finish, complemented by modern light fixtures and a full set of matching appliances that bring everything together, giving it the feel of a site-built home. The living area flows seamlessly from the kitchen, with stylish lighting and new energy-efficient windows that fill the space with natural light. The bathrooms have been fully renovated with new vanities, mirrors, updated lighting, and clean, contemporary fixtures. Showers and tubs have been upgraded with tile surrounds, adding a polished, upscale touch. And to top it off, this home offers a new roof. Overall, it feels nothing like an older mobile home—it’s modern, comfortable, and thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, essentially a brand-new home within the existing structure.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2017

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,805 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,859
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 9.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
917 Arkansas River Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$185,900	$138	88
915 Pecos River Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	14mo	$199,000	$148	85
908 Devils River Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	18mo	$194,900	$145	83
915 Arkansas River Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+11%)	4mo	$198,900	$133	72
1418 Corona Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+2%)	11mo	$180,000	$132	57
2821 Brazos River Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	23mo	$149,990	$99	49
1315 Woodmere Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	22mo	$145,000	$100	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,692
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,219
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,266/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,694

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $218	+0% $161	+5% $104	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $86	+0% $161	+5% $236	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $212	base $161	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 Heritage Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,875	$1.33	45d	1	0.16mi
919 Arkansas River Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,775	$1.48	14d	1	0.18mi
408 Heritage Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,890	$1.16	24d	1	0.28mi
3505 Brazos River Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,900	$1.42	45d	1	0.38mi
2509 Elk Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,695	$1.19	45d	1	0.54mi
2314 Creekview Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,850	$1.43	26d	1	0.85mi
2224 Hercules Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,000	$1.17	26d	1	0.89mi
2502 Coyote Trl Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	45d	1	0.90mi
1414 Lauren Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	26d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-19
   historical Active Option Contract 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   As you walk inside, you’re immediately struck by how open and refreshed the space feels. The kitchen has been completely updated with brand-new shaker-style cabinets in a crisp white finish, complemented by modern light fixtures and a full set of matching appliances that bring everything together, giving it the feel of a site-built home. The living area flows seamlessly from the kitchen, with stylish lighting and new energy-efficient windows that fill the space with natural light. The bathrooms have been fully renovated with new vanities, mirrors, updated lighting, and clean, contemporary fixtures. Showers and tubs have been upgraded with tile surrounds, adding a polished, upscale touch. And to top it off, this home offers a new roof. Overall, it feels nothing like an older mobile home—it’s modern, comfortable, and thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, essentially a brand-new home within the existing structure.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $199,900 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   As you walk inside, you’re immediately struck by how open and refreshed the space feels. The kitchen has been completely updated with brand-new shaker-style cabinets in a crisp white finish, complemented by modern light fixtures and a full set of matching appliances that bring everything together, giving it the feel of a site-built home. The living area flows seamlessly from the kitchen, with stylish lighting and new energy-efficient windows that fill the space with natural light. The bathrooms have been fully renovated with new vanities, mirrors, updated lighting, and clean, contemporary fixtures. Showers and tubs have been upgraded with tile surrounds, adding a polished, upscale touch. And to top it off, this home offers a new roof. Overall, it feels nothing like an older mobile home—it’s modern, comfortable, and thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, essentially a brand-new home within the existing structure.

3. 2026-04-13
   price $212,500 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   As you walk inside, you’re immediately struck by how open and refreshed the space feels. The kitchen has been completely updated with brand-new shaker-style cabinets in a crisp white finish, complemented by modern light fixtures and a full set of matching appliances that bring everything together, giving it the feel of a site-built home. The living area flows seamlessly from the kitchen, with stylish lighting and new energy-efficient windows that fill the space with natural light. The bathrooms have been fully renovated with new vanities, mirrors, updated lighting, and clean, contemporary fixtures. Showers and tubs have been upgraded with tile surrounds, adding a polished, upscale touch. And to top it off, this home offers a new roof. Overall, it feels nothing like an older mobile home—it’s modern, comfortable, and thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, essentially a brand-new home within the existing structure.

4. 2026-03-27
   listed $215,000 Active 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   As you walk inside, you’re immediately struck by how open and refreshed the space feels. The kitchen has been completely updated with brand-new shaker-style cabinets in a crisp white finish, complemented by modern light fixtures and a full set of matching appliances that bring everything together, giving it the feel of a site-built home. The living area flows seamlessly from the kitchen, with stylish lighting and new energy-efficient windows that fill the space with natural light. The bathrooms have been fully renovated with new vanities, mirrors, updated lighting, and clean, contemporary fixtures. Showers and tubs have been upgraded with tile surrounds, adding a polished, upscale touch. And to top it off, this home offers a new roof. Overall, it feels nothing like an older mobile home—it’s modern, comfortable, and thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, essentially a brand-new home within the existing structure.

5. 2025-11-21
   soldstatus Closed 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   This property features three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, providing ample space for comfort and relaxation. The open-concept living and dining area is perfect for entertaining and family gatherings, allowing for seamless flow and interaction. One of the standout features of this home is the breathtaking view of Lake Granbury, which can be enjoyed from the kitchen window over the sink—imagine cooking while gazing out at the serene waters! Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend getaway, this location is ideal for those seeking tranquility and the beauty of nature. Enjoy endless opportunities for recreation, relaxation, and creating lasting memories at Lake Granbury. Don’t miss your chance to make this lovely home your This property is now under auction terms. All offers are subject to seller's approval.

6. 2025-09-30
   status Pending 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   This property features three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, providing ample space for comfort and relaxation. The open-concept living and dining area is perfect for entertaining and family gatherings, allowing for seamless flow and interaction. One of the standout features of this home is the breathtaking view of Lake Granbury, which can be enjoyed from the kitchen window over the sink—imagine cooking while gazing out at the serene waters! Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend getaway, this location is ideal for those seeking tranquility and the beauty of nature. Enjoy endless opportunities for recreation, relaxation, and creating lasting memories at Lake Granbury. Don’t miss your chance to make this lovely home your This property is now under auction terms. All offers are subject to seller's approval.

7. 2025-08-19
   price $119,000 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   This property features three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, providing ample space for comfort and relaxation. The open-concept living and dining area is perfect for entertaining and family gatherings, allowing for seamless flow and interaction. One of the standout features of this home is the breathtaking view of Lake Granbury, which can be enjoyed from the kitchen window over the sink—imagine cooking while gazing out at the serene waters! Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend getaway, this location is ideal for those seeking tranquility and the beauty of nature. Enjoy endless opportunities for recreation, relaxation, and creating lasting memories at Lake Granbury. Don’t miss your chance to make this lovely home your This property is now under auction terms. All offers are subject to seller's approval.

8. 2025-07-23
   price $129,000 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   This property features three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, providing ample space for comfort and relaxation. The open-concept living and dining area is perfect for entertaining and family gatherings, allowing for seamless flow and interaction. One of the standout features of this home is the breathtaking view of Lake Granbury, which can be enjoyed from the kitchen window over the sink—imagine cooking while gazing out at the serene waters! Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend getaway, this location is ideal for those seeking tranquility and the beauty of nature. Enjoy endless opportunities for recreation, relaxation, and creating lasting memories at Lake Granbury. Don’t miss your chance to make this lovely home your This property is now under auction terms. All offers are subject to seller's approval.

9. 2025-06-26
   price $139,000 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   This property features three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, providing ample space for comfort and relaxation. The open-concept living and dining area is perfect for entertaining and family gatherings, allowing for seamless flow and interaction. One of the standout features of this home is the breathtaking view of Lake Granbury, which can be enjoyed from the kitchen window over the sink—imagine cooking while gazing out at the serene waters! Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend getaway, this location is ideal for those seeking tranquility and the beauty of nature. Enjoy endless opportunities for recreation, relaxation, and creating lasting memories at Lake Granbury. Don’t miss your chance to make this lovely home your This property is now under auction terms. All offers are subject to seller's approval.

10. 2025-05-24
    price $149,000 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    This property features three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, providing ample space for comfort and relaxation. The open-concept living and dining area is perfect for entertaining and family gatherings, allowing for seamless flow and interaction. One of the standout features of this home is the breathtaking view of Lake Granbury, which can be enjoyed from the kitchen window over the sink—imagine cooking while gazing out at the serene waters! Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend getaway, this location is ideal for those seeking tranquility and the beauty of nature. Enjoy endless opportunities for recreation, relaxation, and creating lasting memories at Lake Granbury. Don’t miss your chance to make this lovely home your This property is now under auction terms. All offers are subject to seller's approval.

11. 2025-04-11
    listed $159,000 Active 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    This property features three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, providing ample space for comfort and relaxation. The open-concept living and dining area is perfect for entertaining and family gatherings, allowing for seamless flow and interaction. One of the standout features of this home is the breathtaking view of Lake Granbury, which can be enjoyed from the kitchen window over the sink—imagine cooking while gazing out at the serene waters! Whether you're looking for a permanent residence or a weekend getaway, this location is ideal for those seeking tranquility and the beauty of nature. Enjoy endless opportunities for recreation, relaxation, and creating lasting memories at Lake Granbury. Don’t miss your chance to make this lovely home your This property is now under auction terms. All offers are subject to seller's approval.

12. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus
13. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus
14. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2021-11-12
    status Pending
16. 2021-11-04
    historical Active Option Contract
17. 2021-10-28
    price $139,900
18. 2021-10-19
    listed $145,000 Active
19. 2018-12-13
    soldstatus
20. 2018-07-03
    soldstatus
21. 1996-02-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,266 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,393/yr (+$116/mo · 61.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,266
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$327
• After-tax cash flow: $2,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+37.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $212,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-11 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2022-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-11-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-11-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-10-28 Price Changed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2021-10-19 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2018-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+25.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,266 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.