1087 Samsonville Rd · Kerhonkson, NY 12446

$319,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1960 2.00 ac lot $215/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming Cape Cod set on 2 peaceful acres in the heart of the Hudson Valley! Located within the sought-after Rondout Valley Central School District, this 3-bedroom, 2 full bathroom home offers a wonderful opportunity to create your dream space. The spacious, well-maintained kitchen flows effortlessly into a large living room filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting setting. A wood-burning fireplace adds character and charm, while three generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms provide a flexible layout. Full unfinished basement provides opportunity for additional space. This home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their own style and updates. With s

Key facts

• Large porch
• Expansive backyard
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• WELL-MAINTAINED KITCHEN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• LEVEL AND PRIVATE LOT
• LARGE PORCH
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area verified by appraiser
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway; 2-car garage
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Propane; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Actual condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Above-ground private pool; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil-fired heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Original details; Washer/Dryer hookup; Full finished basement; Finished attic; 9 total rooms; Covered, wrap-around porch with deck
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement; Washer/Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.4% in Kerhonkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kerhonkson Elementary School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,574 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 209 students, 54% FRL); Rondout Valley Junior High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 243 students, 42% FRL); Rondout Valley High School (math 87% / reading 64%, grade A-, #623 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 569 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $320k implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.90%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $718,647
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -55.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $268,957
• Equity at exit: $288,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.01×
• Total profit: $717,902
• Equity at exit: $621,495

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12446

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$496 /mo · $5,950/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $1,485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,920

Max offer price $319,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,666	-5% $1,576	+0% $1,485	+5% $1,395	+10% $1,304
Rent	-10% $1,106	-5% $1,296	+0% $1,485	+5% $1,675	+10% $1,864
Rate	-1.0pp $1,646	-0.5pp $1,567	base $1,485	+0.5pp $1,402	+1.0pp $1,318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
421 Brown Rd Olivebridge, NY	3.0	2.0	1120	$4,800	$4.29	44d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $319,900 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $319,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $319,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $319,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $319,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   listed $319,900 Active 1331-char remark
7. 1994-08-30
   soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,950 · $496/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,950 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$5,950
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,608
• − Management: −$4,608
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable income: $13,609
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,266
• After-tax cash flow: $14,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rondout Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,408
• Composite: 39.5/100
• National rank: #3949
• State rank: #447 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kerhonkson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #552
• US rank: #9921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,232
• Population (ZIP): 5,232

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.32%
• Current HPI: 380.6732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+251.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $319,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,950 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.