9840 S 8th St · Mayer, AZ 86333

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1981 5,102 sqft lot Est $267k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,102 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#147 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,204 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,800
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9840 S 8th St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,150 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$196	99
12723 E Fair Mist Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+0%)	23mo	$165,000	$143	59
10101 S 3rd St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-11%)	1mo	$252,000	$247	56
10029 S First St	0.47mi	3/2.0	990 (-14%)	6mo	$229,900	$232	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $135,356
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $388,209
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,675

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $267	+0% $203	+5% $139	+10% $76
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $127	+0% $203	+5% $279	+10% $356
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $260	base $203	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2026-02-20
   historical
4. 2026-02-12
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-12-03
   price $225,000
6. 2025-10-02
   listed $232,000 Active
7. 2025-09-16
   status Pending
8. 2025-09-16
   historical
9. 2025-09-05
   price $232,000
10. 2025-08-10
    price $244,000
11. 2025-07-23
    listed $245,000 Active
12. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed
13. 2024-03-13
    status Pending
14. 2024-03-10
    status Active
15. 2024-03-01
    status Pending
16. 2024-02-27
    listed $200,000 Active
17. 1995-12-04
    soldstatus $38,000
18. 1995-05-05
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$889/yr (+$74/mo · 149.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$335
• After-tax cash flow: $2,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mayer

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #17284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayer, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+492.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $225,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listed $232,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $232,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $244,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Sold (MLS) $200,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-13 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-10 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-01 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-27 Listed $200,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $596 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.