221 N Ewing St · Guthrie, KY 42234

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1960 $90/sqft · 25% below area Est $225k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your personal slice of paradise nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, where the charm of country living meets modern conveniences. This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom house is more than just a home; it's a lifestyle waiting to be embraced. Plenty of room for a garden and chickens!

Key facts

• Room for a garden
• Modern conveniences
• Pool

Tags

• TRANQUIL NEIGHBORHOOD
• MODERN CONVENIENCES
• ROOM FOR A GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.6% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#328 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Todd County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #99 of 165 in KY (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 42 units permitted in Todd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Todd County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $84k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,633
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -26.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
363 Third St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+1%)	2mo	$92,000	$50	82
206 N Ewing St	0.22mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,600 (-13%)	2mo	$200,000	$125	60
249 Summer St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-6%)	2mo	$465,000	$271	59
418 Second St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,569 (-14%)	12mo	$182,200	$116	53
514 Edlin St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,628 (-11%)	11mo	$299,000	$184	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-36,082
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-43,481
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42234

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,927/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $139,107

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-100	+0% $-147	+5% $-193	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-194	+0% $-147	+5% $-99	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-105	base $-147	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 N 2nd St Guthrie, KY	3.0	1.0	1537	$1,200	$0.78	8d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $199,900 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Welcome to your personal slice of paradise nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, where the charm of country living meets modern conveniences. This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom house is more than just a home; it's a lifestyle waiting to be embraced. Plenty of room for a garden and chickens!

16. 2026-02-21
    price $224,900 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Welcome to your personal slice of paradise nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, where the charm of country living meets modern conveniences. This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom house is more than just a home; it's a lifestyle waiting to be embraced. Plenty of room for a garden and chickens!

17. 2026-01-21
    listed $248,900 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Welcome to your personal slice of paradise nestled in a tranquil neighborhood, where the charm of country living meets modern conveniences. This 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom house is more than just a home; it's a lifestyle waiting to be embraced. Plenty of room for a garden and chickens!

18. 2025-10-03
    historical
19. 2025-09-04
    status Active
20. 2025-05-22
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2025-05-12
    listed $249,900 Active
22. 2024-01-20
    historical
23. 2024-01-12
    status Active
24. 2023-12-31
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2023-12-11
    price $275,000
26. 2023-11-14
    price $284,000
27. 2023-11-07
    listed $295,000 Active
28. 2023-11-06
    historical
29. 2022-05-20
    soldstatus $229,900
30. 2022-05-18
    soldstatus $229,900
31. 2022-03-25
    listed $229,900
32. 2018-10-10
    soldstatus $119,000
33. 2016-12-29
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,927
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,128
• After-tax cash flow: $-631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Todd County
• NCES district ID: 2105550
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $39,989
• Composite: 26.01/100
• National rank: #7315
• State rank: #99 of 165 in KY

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #15684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,299

Population outlook (Todd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,073 people
• By 2030: 11,770 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 11,082 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 10,250 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 8,037 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 5,654 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Polish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · German/W. Germanic 16% Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Todd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.9) · D 20.6% · R 78.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -57.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.98%
• Current HPI: 299.0887
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $199,900 HCTCBOR
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $224,900 HCTCBOR
• 2026-01-21 Listed $248,900 HCTCBOR
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Listed $249,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-20 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-31 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-11 Price Changed $275,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-14 Price Changed $284,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-07 Listed $295,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-06 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $229,900 Public Records
• 2022-05-18 Sold (MLS) $229,900 HCTCBOR
• 2022-03-25 Listed $229,900 HCTCBOR
• 2018-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,927 · +66.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.