15 Redwood Rd · Saugerties South, NY 12477

$299,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1965 8,712 sqft lot Est $417k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Raised Ranch in Barclay Heights, Three Bedroom 1 1/2 baths on a large 0.20 acre treed lot. Upstairs has open dining room/ living room combo with a large kitchen with an eat in area. 3 bedrooms upstairs and a full bath, downstairs has a family room with a den and half bath/laundry area. 2 car garage and oversized deck top of this gem. House needs some updating.

Key facts

• Eat in area
• Living room combo
• Large kitchen

Tags

• OPEN DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM COMBO
• LARGE KITCHEN
• EAT IN AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• DEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.2 acres (dimensions 105 x 77)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Finished full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($116/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#797 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,051 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Mountain View Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,650 (0%)	0mo	$320,000	$194	84
6 Redwood Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,598 (-3%)	16mo	$338,000	$212	78
9 9 Birchwood Drive South	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-3%)	9mo	$410,000	$257	77
13 Birchwood Dr S	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,500 (-9%)	14mo	$375,000	$250	63
21 Edith Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,483 (-10%)	1mo	$395,000	$266	61
12 Roming Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+4%)	11mo	$417,000	$242	57
50 Appletree Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+3%)	9mo	$430,000	$253	56
4 Jeffrey Ct. Ct	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,516 (-8%)	11mo	$330,000	$218	56
6 Stevens Ct	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,542 (-6%)	11mo	$375,000	$243	56
27 Appletree Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,414 (-14%)	3mo	$360,000	$255	50
15 Simmons Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,402 (-15%)	10mo	$355,000	$253	44
19 Edgewood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-12%)	10mo	$455,000	$312	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-47,737
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-40,368
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12477

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,648/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,738

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Trinity Ct Saugerties, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,970	$2.93	14d	6	0.73mi
1 Trinity Ct Saugerties, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,800	$2.83	43d	13	0.73mi
84 Glasco Tpke Unit 1 Glasco, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	43d	1	1.07mi
14 Montross St Unit A Saugerties, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,400	$1.85	23d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $299,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $299,000 Active
17. 2026-02-25
    status Active
18. 2026-02-17
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-02-10
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,648 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,648 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,648
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saugerties Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,897
• Composite: 41.3/100
• National rank: #3515
• State rank: #419 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saugerties South

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #797
• US rank: #15405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saugerties South, NY
• County: Ulster County · 56,183 people
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,066
• Household income: $80,861
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 725.0

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.47%
• Current HPI: 327.9975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $299,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-17 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $299,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,648 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.