1940 Bayou Ave SW · Palm Bay, FL 32908

$378,148

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,754 sqft · Land · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 7,405 sqft lot $91/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan perfect for entertaining and everyday multi-tasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner. Upstairs, four bedrooms surround a spacious loft.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Private back corner
• Owner's suite

Tags

• TWO-LEVEL HOME
• FLEX SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BACK CORNER
• SPACIOUS LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Membership in Tillman Lakes association; Community playground; Monthly association fee of $91

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; North-facing
• Construction: Block and concrete construction
• Exterior features: Front sprinklers

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining room on the main level; Family room on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished (no built-in appliances listed beyond kitchen)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $378k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 798 students, 52% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1030 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,015/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 112% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $301,542 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-86,792
• Equity at exit: $56,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-121,808
• Equity at exit: $32,695

Cash invested: $105,881 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32908

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 1030
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,983
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$473 /mo · $5,672/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,423

Max offer price $331,538

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-191	+0% $-322	+5% $-453	+10% $-583
Rent	-10% $-560	-5% $-441	+0% $-322	+5% $-203	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-132	-0.5pp $-226	base $-322	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,537
• Closing costs: $11,344
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 Papillon St SW Palm Bay, FL	5.0	2.5	2400	$2,450	$1.02	14d	1	0.37mi
185 Wading Bird Cir SW Palm Bay, FL	5.0	4.0	3489	$3,500	$1.00	21d	1	0.87mi
185 Wading Bird Cir SW Palm Bay, FL	5.0	4.0	3489	$3,500	$1.00	25d	1	0.87mi
591 Darien Ave SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2076	$2,750	$1.32	25d	1	1.04mi
340 Wendover Rd SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2052	$2,200	$1.07	25d	1	1.36mi
2701 Pinwherry St NW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,800	$1.33	14d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $378,148 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $378,148 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $378,148 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $378,148 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $376,035 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $376,035 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $376,035 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $376,035 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $376,035 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $376,035 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $376,035 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $376,035 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $376,035 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $376,035 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $376,035 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $376,035 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This new two-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan perfect for entertaining and everyday multi-tasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner. Upstairs, four bedrooms surround a spacious loft.

17. 2026-05-19
    listed $376,035 Active

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This new two-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan perfect for entertaining and everyday multi-tasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner. Upstairs, four bedrooms surround a spacious loft.

18. 2026-05-12
    price $378,148 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This new two-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan perfect for entertaining and everyday multi-tasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner. Upstairs, four bedrooms surround a spacious loft.

19. 2026-04-22
    price $382,171 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This new two-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan perfect for entertaining and everyday multi-tasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner. Upstairs, four bedrooms surround a spacious loft.

20. 2026-04-15
    price $386,285 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This new two-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan perfect for entertaining and everyday multi-tasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner. Upstairs, four bedrooms surround a spacious loft.

21. 2026-04-07
    price $386,421 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This new two-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan perfect for entertaining and everyday multi-tasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner. Upstairs, four bedrooms surround a spacious loft.

22. 2026-04-06
    listed $388,488 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    This new two-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance layout. A versatile flex space can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan perfect for entertaining and everyday multi-tasking. The owner's suite is tucked away into a private back corner. Upstairs, four bedrooms surround a spacious loft.

23. 2026-02-18
    soldstatus $1,281,500
24. 2025-12-12
    soldstatus $8,425,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,182
• − Property taxes: −$5,672
• − Insurance: −$1,891
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,895
• − Management: −$2,895
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$11,001
• Taxable loss: −$10,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,506
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,535
• Household income: $79,596
• Rent vs Own: 10.2% rent · 89.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 112.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Estonian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.22%
• Current HPI: 330.0399
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $376,035 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Listed $376,035 SCMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $378,148 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $382,171 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $386,285 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $386,421 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Listed $388,488 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,281,500 Public Records
• 2025-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $8,425,800 Public Records