JASMINE Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$282,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,207 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Jasmine floor plan offers 2,182 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with a comfortable blend of open-concept areas and private retreats. The first floor features a welcoming foyer that leads into a spacious kitchen with a large island, pantry, and direct access to the dining and family rooms, creating an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while a conveniently located powder room sits near the front of the home. The first-floor primary bedroom provides a private getaway with a well-appointed bath and a generous walk-in closet. The second floor includes three additional bedrooms and a full bath, along with a

Key facts

• Well-appointed bath
• Spacious kitchen
• Welcoming foyer

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WELL-APPOINTED BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (including 2-car garage)
• Home design: Single-family plan home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2207

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan home (JASMINE)

🏗️ New construction. The $282,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 716 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,615 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.91%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,990
• List price: $282,990
• Delta: -32.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-148,087
• Equity at exit: $62,324

10-year hold

• IRR: -90.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.13×
• Total profit: $-248,840
• Equity at exit: $36,140

Cash invested: $117,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 716
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,192
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,270/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-1,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,656

Max offer price $249,908

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,497
• Closing costs: $12,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,990 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,990 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,990 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $282,990 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $282,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $282,990 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    listed $299,990 Active 785-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,414
• − Property taxes: −$6,270
• − Insurance: −$2,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − Depreciation: −$12,160
• Taxable loss: −$21,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Jasmine floor plan is in excellent condition with a good layout and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates such as painting and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves tenant satisfaction and reduces utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves tenant satisfaction and reduces utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B