18 Marion St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1900 3,925 sqft lot Est $168k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

18 Marion Street, Buffalo, New York, 14207. OPEN HOUSE Sunday, June 7, 2026, 1:00-3:00 pm. Spacious and easy to manage, early 1900's era bungalow on a wonderfully treed and secluded yard. White vinyl exterior, shingle roof, new within the last 5-6 years, classic open porch and updated windows. Big, bright living and dining rooms, redone walls, ceilings and refinished hardwood floors. Well designed kitchen abundant with cabinets and workspaces. Three first floor bedrooms, a bathroom and a great sized utility room. Massive second floor, easily developed and finished into a primary suite. Mostly modern and updated systems include heating, electric, hot water and windows. First day to see 18 M

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Shingle roof
• Classic open porch

Tags

• EARLY 1900S ERA BUNGALOW
• TREED AND SECLUDED YARD
• WHITE VINYL EXTERIOR
• SHINGLE ROOF
• CLASSIC OPEN PORCH
• UPDATED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Security: Full yard fencing
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Frame construction; Two-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Near public transit; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Gas water heater; See remarks (additional appliance details)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,012
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
805 Amherst St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,432 (-0%)	10mo	$260,000	$182	66
72 Glor St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,370 (-5%)	8mo	$160,000	$117	65
153 Howell St	0.15mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,545 (+8%)	13mo	$80,000	$52	65
62 Germain St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-8%)	13mo	$80,000	$61	63
154 Germain St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,334 (-7%)	16mo	$120,000	$90	61
116 Ledger St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,408 (-2%)	13mo	$160,000	$114	55
10 Rebecca Park	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	4mo	$275,000	$185	54
141 Page St	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,479 (+3%)	7mo	$220,000	$149	53
51 Sunnyside Pl	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,354 (-6%)	11mo	$195,000	$144	50
103 Ledger St	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,486 (+4%)	10mo	$185,000	$124	48
111 Gorton St	0.75mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,508 (+5%)	6mo	$164,900	$109	47
246 Amherst St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+13%)	2mo	$85,500	$53	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,705
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $64,101
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $466/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,052

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
72 Reservation St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	23d	1	0.05mi
68 Peter St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	23d	1	0.23mi
293 Grote St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$2,345	$2.87	1d	1	0.24mi
155 Germain St Apt 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	10d	1	0.25mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	23d	1	0.28mi
139 Fordham Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,700	$1.17	23d	1	0.42mi
68 Laforce Pl Unit U Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	43d	1	0.51mi
52 Greeley St Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1804	$1,000	$0.55	23d	1	0.52mi
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	21d	1	0.83mi
46 Hawley St #1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	43d	1	0.94mi
57 Abbottsford Pl Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	23d	1	0.99mi
891 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,800	$1.53	43d	1	1.01mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	1d	14	1.03mi
37 Abbottsford Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,650	$1.46	43d	1	1.03mi
2099 Niagara St Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,197	$1.20	43d	1	1.04mi
2514 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,650	$1.02	1d	1	1.08mi
340 Bird Ave #202 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1505	$2,950	$1.96	10d	1	1.09mi
2522 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,625	$1.41	1d	1	1.09mi
374 Baynes St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1126	$1,550	$1.38	43d	1	1.12mi
309 Bird Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	43d	1	1.13mi
305 Bird Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1128	$2,300	$2.04	43d	1	1.13mi
239 Crowley Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	966	$1,025	$1.06	3d	1	1.13mi
15 Ontario St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	1.14mi
480 W Hazeltine Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	989	$1,900	$1.92	23d	1	1.19mi
244 Hartwell Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	2d	1	1.19mi
88 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1355	$1,695	$1.25	19d	1	1.21mi
15 Beatrice Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	14d	1	1.22mi
79 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	23d	1	1.24mi
77 Lovering Ave #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	43d	1	1.25mi
140 Commonwealth Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$3,500	$2.80	43d	1	1.26mi
1015 Elmwood Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	1.26mi
20 Avery Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	14d	1	1.27mi
825 Forest Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	3d	1	1.29mi
825 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	23d	1	1.29mi
185 Potomac Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	23d	1	1.31mi
1485 Niagara St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	925	$2,174	$2.35	1d	1	1.35mi
1560 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	23d	1	1.38mi
158 Chadduck Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	23d	1	1.38mi
232 Dewitt St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	23d	1	1.39mi
117 Bidwell Pkwy Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,500	$1.26	3d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-26
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $466 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,415 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$949/yr (+$79/mo · 203.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$466
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,387
• − Management: −$1,387
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $3,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $466 · +43.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.