618 Elton St · New York, NY 11208

$569,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,757 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1901 2,100 sqft lot Est $819k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to 618 Elton Street. This is an Estate Sale. A Two-Family home, calling Renovators and Visionaries!!! This charming fixer-upper presents a unique opportunity to restore its charm and original character. This property offers a chance to create a masterpiece that will stand the test of time. Don't miss your chance to transform this home into a truly exceptional home. This property is Sold "as-is".

Key facts

• 2,100 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1901

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $506/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $568k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $553k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,682/mo this rent would consume 110% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 7574% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $160k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $552,899 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.61%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $818,762
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
473 Berriman St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-2%)	9mo	$825,000	$480	77
399 Warwick St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+2%)	8mo	$455,000	$253	67
780 Hendrix St	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,848 (+5%)	2mo	$889,000	$481	61
549 Ashford St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,018 (+15%)	6mo	$940,000	$466	60
495 Milford St	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,944 (+11%)	5mo	$800,000	$412	58
733 Warwick St	0.20mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+14%)	9mo	$720,000	$360	55
545 Logan St	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,640 (-7%)	5mo	$630,000	$384	53
1023 New Lots Ave	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,596 (-9%)	10mo	$875,000	$548	52
333 Milford St	0.39mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,880 (+7%)	11mo	$999,999	$532	52
551 Liberty Ave	0.67mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (-5%)	12mo	$672,001	$401	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-9,587
• Equity at exit: $84,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $154,893
• Equity at exit: $49,283

Cash invested: $159,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11208

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,001/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,193
• Net cashflow: $1,012

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,401

Max offer price $569,999

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,335	-5% $1,173	+0% $1,012	+5% $851	+10% $689
Rent	-10% $563	-5% $788	+0% $1,012	+5% $1,237	+10% $1,461
Rate	-1.0pp $1,299	-0.5pp $1,157	base $1,012	+0.5pp $864	+1.0pp $714

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$5,682
Total (2 units)			$5,682

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,500
• Closing costs: $17,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10124 78th St Ozone Park, NY	3.0	1.0	2299	$3,500	$1.52	25d	1	1.41mi
156-49 76th St Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,300	$2.64	17d	1	1.44mi
13214 81st St Ozone Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1280	$4,100	$3.20	12d	1	1.46mi
132-13 81st St #1 Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1280	$4,100	$3.20	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-06
   listed $569,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,001 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,317 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,316/yr (+$276/mo · 110.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,929
• − Property taxes: −$3,001
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,455
• − Management: −$5,455
• − Depreciation: −$16,582
• Taxable income: $2,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$699
• After-tax cash flow: $11,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 105,428
• Household income: $62,077
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7574.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 39% Asian 10% Two or more races 8% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 16%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 40% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -546.38%
• Current HPI: 376.1489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listed $569,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,001 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.