22151 Ravine Ct · Jones Valley, CA 96003

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2004 0.55 ac lot Est $203k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 2005 manufactured home on a permanent foundation, offering comfort, flexibility, and space to spread out. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home is designed for easy living with a functional layout and plenty of natural light. Step outside and enjoy the expansive wraparound deck, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or taking in the peaceful surroundings. The home is equipped for year-round comfort with kerosene monitor heating, central air, and an additional swamp cooler. Plus, the roof is only about a year and a half old, giving added peace of mind. Situated on approximately . 55 of an acre, the property offers a variety of mature fruit trees including walnut, plum, pomegranate, and orange. There's ample space for gardening, raising chickens, or accommodating other animals, making it ideal for those looking for a bit of country lifestyle. Outdoor features continue with a cozy fire pit area, two covered carports, and multiple outbuildings. The detached shop includes space for vehicle parking or can easily serve as a workshop or ''man cave, '' complete with a wood stove. Additionally, there's a versatile 210 sq ft shed, perfect for a she shed, hobby room, garden storage, or creative workspace. All of this just minutes from Shasta Lake, offering convenient access to outdoor recreation while still enjoying your own private slice of property. With its permanent foundation, this home should qualify for FHA, VA, and USDA financing options.

Key facts

• Covered carports
• Mature fruit trees
• Wraparound deck

Tags

• WRAPAROUND DECK
• CENTRAL AIR
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• COZY FIRE PIT AREA
• COVERED CARPORTS
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $250k implies a 614% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,846 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14573 Dry Creek Rd Rd	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+8%)	15mo	$165,000	$118	52
14850 Lamoine Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+11%)	16mo	$225,000	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-18,540
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $32,588
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $887/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,884

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $311	+0% $240	+5% $170	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $154	+0% $240	+5% $327	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $304	base $240	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 1498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2005 manufactured home on a permanent foundation, offering comfort, flexibility, and space to spread out. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home is designed for easy living with a functional layout and plenty of natural light. Step outside and enjoy the expansive wraparound deck, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or taking in the peaceful surroundings. The home is equipped for year-round comfort with kerosene monitor heating, central air, and an additional swamp cooler. Plus, the roof is only about a year and a half old, giving added peace of mind. Situated on approximately . 55 of an acre, the property offers a variety of mature fruit trees including walnut, plum, pomegranate, and orange. There's ample space for gardening, raising chickens, or accommodating other animals, making it ideal for those looking for a bit of country lifestyle. Outdoor features continue with a cozy fire pit area, two covered carports, and multiple outbuildings. The detached shop includes space for vehicle parking or can easily serve as a workshop or ''man cave, '' complete with a wood stove. Additionally, there's a versatile 210 sq ft shed, perfect for a she shed, hobby room, garden storage, or creative workspace. All of this just minutes from Shasta Lake, offering convenient access to outdoor recreation while still enjoying your own private slice of property. With its permanent foundation, this home should qualify for FHA, VA, and USDA financing options.

2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-20
   listed $249,900 Active 1498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2005 manufactured home on a permanent foundation, offering comfort, flexibility, and space to spread out. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home is designed for easy living with a functional layout and plenty of natural light. Step outside and enjoy the expansive wraparound deck, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or taking in the peaceful surroundings. The home is equipped for year-round comfort with kerosene monitor heating, central air, and an additional swamp cooler. Plus, the roof is only about a year and a half old, giving added peace of mind. Situated on approximately . 55 of an acre, the property offers a variety of mature fruit trees including walnut, plum, pomegranate, and orange. There's ample space for gardening, raising chickens, or accommodating other animals, making it ideal for those looking for a bit of country lifestyle. Outdoor features continue with a cozy fire pit area, two covered carports, and multiple outbuildings. The detached shop includes space for vehicle parking or can easily serve as a workshop or ''man cave, '' complete with a wood stove. Additionally, there's a versatile 210 sq ft shed, perfect for a she shed, hobby room, garden storage, or creative workspace. All of this just minutes from Shasta Lake, offering convenient access to outdoor recreation while still enjoying your own private slice of property. With its permanent foundation, this home should qualify for FHA, VA, and USDA financing options.

4. 2026-04-20
   listed $249,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2005 manufactured home on a permanent foundation, offering comfort, flexibility, and space to spread out. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home is designed for easy living with a functional layout and plenty of natural light. Step outside and enjoy the expansive wraparound deck, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or taking in the peaceful surroundings. The home is equipped for year-round comfort with kerosene monitor heating, central air, and an additional swamp cooler. Plus, the roof is only about a year and a half old, giving added peace of mind. Situated on approximately . 55 of an acre, the property offers a variety of mature fruit trees including walnut, plum, pomegranate, and orange. There's ample space for gardening, raising chickens, or accommodating other animals, making it ideal for those looking for a bit of country lifestyle. Outdoor features continue with a cozy fire pit area, two covered carports, and multiple outbuildings. The detached shop includes space for vehicle parking or can easily serve as a workshop or ''man cave, '' complete with a wood stove. Additionally, there's a versatile 210 sq ft shed, perfect for a she shed, hobby room, garden storage, or creative workspace. All of this just minutes from Shasta Lake, offering convenient access to outdoor recreation while still enjoying your own private slice of property. With its permanent foundation, this home should qualify for FHA, VA, and USDA financing options.

5. 1998-10-29
   soldstatus $35,000
6. 1994-01-20
   soldstatus $55,000
7. 1994-01-20
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $887 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,013/yr (+$84/mo · 114.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$887
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$1,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$323
• After-tax cash flow: $3,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jones Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jones Valley, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+354.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — TCAOR
• 2026-04-22 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $249,900 TCAOR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $249,900 SAOR
• 1998-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1994-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1994-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $887 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.