6810 Beals Creek Dr · Abilene, TX 79606

$438,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,204 sqft · Land · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 0.26 ac lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Agent related to owner. Attractive home built by Legend Homes. This house features 4 bedrooms and 3 baths, master connecting to utility room, and so much more. A house that is functional and beautiful all at the same time.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $438k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-608 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 6.8% in Abilene — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie West El (428 students, 21% FRL); Wylie West J H (math 62% / reading 58%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 972 students, 24% FRL); Wylie H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 1,467 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,125/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($425k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,464 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-93,137
• Equity at exit: $65,307

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-55,528
• Equity at exit: $37,870

Cash invested: $122,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,297
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$548 /mo · $6,570/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $-608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,895

Max offer price $349,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-306	-5% $-457	+0% $-608	+5% $-760	+10% $-911
Rent	-10% $-855	-5% $-732	+0% $-608	+5% $-485	+10% $-362
Rate	-1.0pp $-388	-0.5pp $-497	base $-608	+0.5pp $-722	+1.0pp $-837

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,500
• Closing costs: $13,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6609 Desert Willow Trl Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$3,200	$1.54	15d	1	0.19mi
5280 Western Plains Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,095	$1.71	7d	1	0.44mi
5180 Western Plains Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,500	$1.46	7d	1	0.47mi
6609 Summerwood Trl Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1851	$3,195	$1.73	7d	1	0.54mi
5133 Bridle Path Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,595	$1.60	4d	1	0.56mi
5409 Wagon Wheel Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,795	$1.64	15d	1	0.63mi
7534 John Carroll Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,795	$1.41	5d	1	1.04mi
4742 Kevin Ct Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$3,400	$2.09	7d	1	1.06mi
7601 Thompson Pkwy Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,795	$1.87	15d	1	1.19mi
7933 Hearne Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,695	$1.75	15d	1	1.20mi
7045 Phoenix Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1571	$2,714	$1.73	26d	1	1.37mi
3726 Pensacola Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2126	$7,000	$3.29	0d	1	1.38mi
3626 Yamini Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,799	$1.57	23d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-02
   listed $438,000 Active
3. 2025-04-22
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,535
• − Property taxes: −$6,570
• − Insurance: −$2,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,000
• − Management: −$3,000
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$12,742
• Taxable loss: −$15,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,634
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $438,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $806 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.