96 Cascade Trail #23 Trl · Fancy Gap, VA 24328

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $213k · 41% under $75/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the Blue Ridge Mountains, this condo provides the perfect weekend getaway or full-time Mountain retreat! This charming fully furnished two-bedroom condo offers the perfect place to enjoy outdoor activities while living just off the Blue Ridge Parkway! This one level condo offers two bedrooms, a full bath, a spacious open-concept living/dining/kitchen area, a large pantry, and newly replaced HVAC units for year round comfort! Conveniently located just minutes from I-77, Hillsville and Mt. Airy NC. Come and enjoy the feeling of owning a mountain retreat and when you're away you could earn rental income! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Mountain retreat
• Minutes from i-77
• Large pantry

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• LARGE PANTRY
• NEWLY REPLACED HVAC UNITS
• MINUTES FROM I-77

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $75 monthly fee

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story; Residential property
• Construction: Log and wood siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.8% in Fancy Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#515 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fancy Gap Elementary (math 92% / reading 87%, grade A+, #19 of 1,108 statewide, top 2%, 127 students, 85% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $125k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.39%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,660
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Thunderhill Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+1%)	22mo	$162,500	$164	50
130 Heavenly View Ln	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+14%)	9mo	$242,500	$217	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $37,113
• Equity at exit: $55,099

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $101,258
• Equity at exit: $84,097

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24328

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,900 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $124,900
17. 2026-03-09
    listed $129,900 Active
18. 2017-12-29
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $2,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$612
• After-tax cash flow: $3,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100690
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,359
• Composite: 53.88/100
• National rank: #1406
• State rank: #46 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fancy Gap

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #23081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,768 people
• By 2030: 27,909 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 25,788 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 23,522 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 19,045 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 168.5656
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+212.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $124,900 SWVAR
• 2026-03-09 Listed $129,900 SWVAR
• 2017-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $218 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.