3821 133rd St · Lubbock, TX 79423

$420,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,102 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2014 9,552 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

South Lubbock living, close to schools, shopping, restaurants and parks. This property is part of a package or sell by itself. Properties inc. ; 2123 143rd, 319 79th, 3817 133rd, 3819 133rd, 5504 110th, 5724 96th and 7513 103rd.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• Close to restaurants

Tags

• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $233/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $370k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lubbock-Cooper Central El (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 849 students, 23% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper Laura Bush Middle (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 971 students, 34% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper H S (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #189 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,117 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 673 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,377/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 1385% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $369,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-42,050
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-13,216
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 673
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$614 /mo · $7,370/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$919
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,787

Max offer price $420,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $585	+0% $466	+5% $347	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $293	+0% $466	+5% $639	+10% $812
Rate	-1.0pp $678	-0.5pp $573	base $466	+0.5pp $357	+1.0pp $247

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	—	$4,378
Total (2 units)			$4,377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2925 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	5.0	2.5	2135	$2,495	$1.17	15d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $420,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $420,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $420,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $420,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $420,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $420,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $420,000 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-01-26
    listed $420,000 Active 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    South Lubbock living, close to schools, shopping, restaurants and parks. This property is part of a package or sell by itself. Properties inc. ; 2123 143rd, 319 79th, 3817 133rd, 3819 133rd, 5504 110th, 5724 96th and 7513 103rd.

19. 2024-12-13
    price $412,000
20. 2024-11-16
    price $417,000
21. 2024-09-13
    price $420,000
22. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus
23. 2022-08-24
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2022-08-12
    status Pending
25. 2022-08-11
    price $1,600
26. 2022-07-28
    listed $420,000 Active
27. 2020-02-06
    soldstatus
28. 2020-02-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,370 · $614/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,686 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: +$316/yr (+$26/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$7,370
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,202
• − Management: −$4,202
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$263
• After-tax cash flow: $5,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $420,000 LARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $412,000 LARMLS
• 2024-11-16 Price Changed $417,000 LARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $420,000 LARMLS
• 2022-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-24 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-08-12 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $1,600 RENT.
• 2022-07-28 Listed $420,000 LARMLS
• 2020-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,370 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.