12977 SW Forli Way · Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$330,390

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $351k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Open-concept townhome with a central kitchen island, perfect for prepping dinner while entertaining. Upstairs, an oversized loft suits game nights or a home office, plus a private primary suite with a large bath and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Oversized loft
• Large bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• CENTRAL KITCHEN ISLAND
• OVERSIZED LOFT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $330,390

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family design (Pompano plan)
• Exterior features: Living area about 1506; Street address: 12977 SW Forli Way, Port Saint Lucie, FL 34987

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home (Pompano plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($126/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1149 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,345 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $350,898
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9688 SW Libertas Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-0%)	11mo	$349,990	$233	83
9401 SW Libertas Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-0%)	1mo	$342,000	$228	77
12816 SW Orvieto Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-0%)	13mo	$378,990	$252	77
9557 SW Libertas Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-0%)	17mo	$329,990	$220	72
9597 SW Royal Poinciana Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+7%)	2mo	$375,000	$233	64
12241 SW Rimini Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+7%)	6mo	$395,000	$245	61
9584 SW Royal Poinciana Dr	0.39mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,610 (+7%)	6mo	$290,000	$180	60
13321 SW Mazzano St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+7%)	2mo	$375,868	$233	50
12236 SW Rimini Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+7%)	19mo	$384,500	$238	49
10026 SW Arezzo Rd	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+7%)	2mo	$360,000	$224	48
9940 SW Santini Rd	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+7%)	10mo	$408,299	$254	46
11748 SW Mountain Ash Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+14%)	16mo	$340,000	$197	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-53,497
• Equity at exit: $49,262

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-48,285
• Equity at exit: $28,566

Cash invested: $92,509 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1149
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,733
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,956/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,890

Max offer price $330,390

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $239	-5% $125	+0% $10	+5% $-104	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-104	+0% $10	+5% $125	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $95	base $10	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,598
• Closing costs: $9,912
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9670 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,700	$1.80	16d	1	0.10mi
13138 SW Valletta Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1727	$2,685	$1.55	16d	25	0.15mi
12845 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,800	$1.59	16d	1	0.15mi
12865 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,700	$1.61	23d	1	0.15mi
9509 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,800	$1.86	25d	1	0.28mi
12271 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	25d	1	0.39mi
12134 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	25d	1	0.45mi
9796 SW Santini Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1929	$3,500	$1.81	16d	1	0.46mi
12500 Roma Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,657	$2.74	16d	7	0.55mi
11590 SW Roma Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1179	$3,071	$2.60	16d	36	0.69mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	23d	1	0.70mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	25d	1	0.70mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 9-303 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,410	$2.15	16d	1	0.73mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 7-105 Port St. Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,660	$2.10	16d	1	0.73mi
9184 SW Esule Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,750	$1.54	16d	1	0.89mi
9084 SW Arco Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,500	$2.11	25d	1	0.91mi
12813 SW Ambra St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1828	$3,200	$1.75	16d	1	0.92mi
11344 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$3,700	$1.74	16d	1	0.97mi
9630 SW Flowermound Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,495	$1.42	16d	1	1.01mi
11267 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1667	$3,200	$1.92	25d	1	1.05mi
10936 SW Vasari Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.5	2100	$3,450	$1.64	16d	1	1.05mi
10231 SW Latium Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,900	$2.30	25d	1	1.07mi
11477 SW Patterson St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,600	$1.58	25d	1	1.09mi
11160 SW Lunata Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1968	$3,850	$1.96	25d	1	1.09mi
10057 SW Newberry Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,500	$1.52	23d	1	1.14mi
14058 SW Surina St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,990	$1.58	16d	1	1.19mi
9728 SW Eastbrook Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,300	$1.73	16d	1	1.20mi
10736 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,700	$1.38	25d	1	1.23mi
9282 SW Miracoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$4,900	$2.54	25d	1	1.25mi
10695 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,850	$1.49	16d	1	1.31mi
14143 SW Safi Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,900	$1.76	16d	1	1.32mi
12401 SW Arabella Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,650	$1.38	25d	1	1.33mi
14075 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,800	$1.46	25d	1	1.35mi
10495 SW Orana Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$3,000	$1.81	25d	1	1.39mi
14122 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,700	$1.61	16d	1	1.39mi
14162 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1754	$2,650	$1.51	25d	1	1.40mi
10241 SW Newberry Ave Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1448	$2,905	$2.01	16d	29	1.41mi
10574 SW Cambria Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$3,000	$1.57	25d	1	1.42mi
10597 SW Vasari Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1549	$2,700	$1.74	16d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,390 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,390 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,390 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,390 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,390 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $330,390 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 231-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $330,390 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,507
• − Property taxes: −$4,956
• − Insurance: −$1,652
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,787
• − Management: −$2,787
• − Depreciation: −$9,611
• Taxable loss: −$5,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,310
• After-tax cash flow: $1,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 597.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B