226 Outland Dr · Harper, TX 78631

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 172 Days on market

Built 2019 4.10 ac lot $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on 4 scenic acres in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home offers comfort, space, and peaceful country living. The open floor plan creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere with seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Surrounded by rolling terrain and mature Hill Country landscape, the property provides privacy, beautiful views, and endless possibilities. The expansive acreage is ideal for animals, gardening, future improvements, or simply enjoying quiet mornings and star-filled Texas nights. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Fredericksburg and 20 minutes from Kerrville, this home offers the perfect balance of rural serenity with easy access to shopping, dining, wineries, and Hill Country attractions. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. This property captures the true spirit of Hill Country living yet close to schoole, shopping and emergency services.

Key facts

• Expansive acreage
• Open floor plan
• Rolling terrain

Tags

• 4 SCENIC ACRES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ROLLING TERRAIN
• MATURE HILL COUNTRY LANDSCAPE
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• 20 MINUTES FROM FREDERICKSBURG

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.3% in Harper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#849 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Harper ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #133 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-67 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,940 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.30%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $706
• Equity at exit: $63,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $38,497
• Equity at exit: $76,123

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78631

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,012/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $220,000 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $234,900 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $234,900 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,900 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,900 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $234,900 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $234,900 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    price $249,000 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Nestled on 4 scenic acres in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home offers comfort, space, and peaceful country living. The open floor plan creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere with seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Surrounded by rolling terrain and mature Hill Country landscape, the property provides privacy, beautiful views, and endless possibilities. The expansive acreage is ideal for animals, gardening, future improvements, or simply enjoying quiet mornings and star-filled Texas nights. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Fredericksburg and 20 minutes from Kerrville, this home offers the perfect balance of rural serenity with easy access to shopping, dining, wineries, and Hill Country attractions. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. This property captures the true spirit of Hill Country living yet close to schoole, shopping and emergency services.

19. 2026-05-08
    price $249,000 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Nestled on 4 scenic acres in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home offers comfort, space, and peaceful country living. The open floor plan creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere with seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Surrounded by rolling terrain and mature Hill Country landscape, the property provides privacy, beautiful views, and endless possibilities. The expansive acreage is ideal for animals, gardening, future improvements, or simply enjoying quiet mornings and star-filled Texas nights. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Fredericksburg and 20 minutes from Kerrville, this home offers the perfect balance of rural serenity with easy access to shopping, dining, wineries, and Hill Country attractions. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. This property captures the true spirit of Hill Country living yet close to schoole, shopping and emergency services.

20. 2026-03-13
    listed $269,000 Active 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Nestled on 4 scenic acres in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home offers comfort, space, and peaceful country living. The open floor plan creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere with seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Surrounded by rolling terrain and mature Hill Country landscape, the property provides privacy, beautiful views, and endless possibilities. The expansive acreage is ideal for animals, gardening, future improvements, or simply enjoying quiet mornings and star-filled Texas nights. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Fredericksburg and 20 minutes from Kerrville, this home offers the perfect balance of rural serenity with easy access to shopping, dining, wineries, and Hill Country attractions. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. This property captures the true spirit of Hill Country living yet close to schoole, shopping and emergency services.

21. 2026-01-22
    price $269,000 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Nestled on 4 scenic acres in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home offers comfort, space, and peaceful country living. The open floor plan creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere with seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Surrounded by rolling terrain and mature Hill Country landscape, the property provides privacy, beautiful views, and endless possibilities. The expansive acreage is ideal for animals, gardening, future improvements, or simply enjoying quiet mornings and star-filled Texas nights. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Fredericksburg and 20 minutes from Kerrville, this home offers the perfect balance of rural serenity with easy access to shopping, dining, wineries, and Hill Country attractions. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. This property captures the true spirit of Hill Country living yet close to schoole, shopping and emergency services.

22. 2025-12-30
    listed $289,000 Active 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Nestled on 4 scenic acres in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home offers comfort, space, and peaceful country living. The open floor plan creates a bright, welcoming atmosphere with seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Surrounded by rolling terrain and mature Hill Country landscape, the property provides privacy, beautiful views, and endless possibilities. The expansive acreage is ideal for animals, gardening, future improvements, or simply enjoying quiet mornings and star-filled Texas nights. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Fredericksburg and 20 minutes from Kerrville, this home offers the perfect balance of rural serenity with easy access to shopping, dining, wineries, and Hill Country attractions. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. This property captures the true spirit of Hill Country living yet close to schoole, shopping and emergency services.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,012 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,014/yr (+$251/mo · 297.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,012
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$564
• After-tax cash flow: $1,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822590
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,723
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2643
• State rank: #133 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harper

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #849
• US rank: #15317

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,357

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.03%
• Current HPI: 225.8858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $249,000 KVMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $249,000 CHCMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $269,000 KVMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $269,000 CHCMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $289,000 CHCMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,012 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.