1225 Lake Ariel Hwy · Lake, PA 18436

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1955 1.41 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks at 1225 Lake Ariel Highway in Lake Ariel, PA! Set on a double lot, this property offers extra space and plenty of potential for a variety of buyers. This home presents a great opportunity to make updates and build equity over time. Whether you're an investor, a buyer looking for your next project, or someone ready to create a home that fits your style, this property offers flexibility to make it your own. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, expansion, or simply enjoying added privacy. Conveniently located near local amenities, major routes, and the natural beauty of the Lake Ariel area, the setting offers a balance of accessibility and small-town charm. Wit

Key facts

• Added privacy
• Major routes
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• ADDED PRIVACY
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• MAJOR ROUTES
• NATURAL BEAUTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.41 acres
• HOA & community: No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: 1,340 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Deck; Front porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Fireplace; Full unfinished basement; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $220k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $218,123 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $576,810
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1249 Lake Ariel Hwy	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,179 (+1%)	6mo	$100,000	$85	79
115 Cardinal Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (+10%)	22mo	$635,000	$493	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $137,632
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $391,255
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,375/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1097 Tresslarville Rd Lake Ariel, PA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	44d	1	0.91mi
1148 Golf Park Dr Lake Ariel, PA	3.0	1.0	1210	$2,900	$2.40	25d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $220,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,375 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,925 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 23.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,375
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $3,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+235.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $220,000 PWMLS
• 2012-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $84,945 Public Records
• 2010-01-13 Listed $137,500 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2010-01-13 Listed $137,500 PMAR
• 2009-07-15 Listed $149,900 PMAR
• 2009-07-15 Listed $149,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2005-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $108,730 Public Records
• 2005-10-21 Sold (MLS) $128,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1996-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $65,570 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,375 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.