1815 E Circle Dr · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$34,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1944 1.00 ac lot $29/sqft · 35% above area Est $25k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking For Your Next Investment Opportunity, don't miss this cute 3 bedroom and 1 bathroom home in quiet neighborhood. Some updates have been completed!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1944

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($878 rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 8.9% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pine Bluff School District (urban): math 6% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #236 of 238 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $239 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.01%
• DSCR: 3.63
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $25,486
• List price: $34,500
• Delta: 35.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2212 S Maple St	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,340 (+11%)	0mo	$42,000	$31	71
1521 S Maple	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,290 (+7%)	15mo	$2,500	$2	61
2104 W 21st Ave	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+15%)	7mo	$50,000	$36	56
1507 W 24th Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-13%)	10mo	$70,000	$66	54
1405 W 29th Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,207 (-0%)	22mo	$85,000	$70	48
1911 W 30th Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+1%)	16mo	$17,000	$14	48
2408 W 26th Ave	0.52mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,336 (+10%)	18mo	$49,500	$37	36
1100 S Spruce St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	21mo	$18,500	$14	31
1416 W 14th	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (+14%)	20mo	$22,000	$16	30
1112 S Fir St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,368 (+13%)	19mo	$35,000	$26	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $24,666
• Equity at exit: $5,144

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $60,442
• Equity at exit: $2,983

Cash invested: $9,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$181
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $276/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $276

Max offer price $34,500

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $485	+0% $475	+5% $465	+10% $456
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $440	+0% $475	+5% $510	+10% $544
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $484	base $475	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,625
• Closing costs: $1,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2319 W 27th Ave Unit B Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	907	$795	$0.88	45d	1	0.48mi
2001 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	729	$750	$1.03	45d	1	0.52mi
1907 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.5	947	$1,150	$1.21	45d	1	0.52mi
1107 S Cypress St Unit 1 Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	875	$700	$0.80	45d	1	0.61mi
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	45d	1	0.92mi
3008 S Elm St Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	802	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.98mi
2404 S Walnut St Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	1100	$700	$0.64	45d	1	1.01mi
304 W Harding Ave Unit 3 Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	1180	$715	$0.61	45d	1	1.05mi
501 W 12th Ave Apt 6 Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	773	$700	$0.91	45d	1	1.07mi
301 W 11th Ave Unit 1 Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	858	$675	$0.79	45d	1	1.23mi
1901 W 40th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	854	$765	$0.90	45d	1	1.34mi
301 W 33rd Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.5	871	$760	$0.87	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $34,500 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,500 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,500 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,500 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,500 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,500 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $34,500 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,500 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,500 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $34,500 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,500 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $34,500 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,500 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,500 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,500 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,500 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $34,500 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-04-08
    price $34,500 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Looking For Your Next Investment Opportunity, don't miss this cute 3 bedroom and 1 bathroom home in quiet neighborhood. Some updates have been completed!

19. 2026-02-17
    listed $39,500 New Listing 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Looking For Your Next Investment Opportunity, don't miss this cute 3 bedroom and 1 bathroom home in quiet neighborhood. Some updates have been completed!

20. 2014-04-13
    historical
21. 2013-07-12
    listed $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $276 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $276 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,933
• − Property taxes: −$276
• − Insurance: −$172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$843
• − Management: −$843
• − Depreciation: −$1,004
• Taxable income: $5,462
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,311
• After-tax cash flow: $4,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bluff School District
• NCES district ID: 0500026
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $32,374
• Composite: 5.86/100
• National rank: #10014
• State rank: #236 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+91.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $34,500 CARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $39,500 CARMLS
• 2014-04-13 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2013-07-12 Listed $18,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $276 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.