419 Cumberland Dr · Birmingham, AL 35206

$159,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1946 0.48 ac lot $130/sqft · 15% below area Est $188k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New listing in the Historic Roebuck Springs subdivision! This home has been beautifully renovated to its original charm. 4 bedrooms 3 baths, New updated kitchen, new flooring, and new baths. This home is conveniently located to I59 and only a short drive to UAB, shopping, restaurants, etc. . Come and see this adorable home today!

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 1946
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel ID: 23-00-01-3-001-006.000; Lot size approximately 0.48 acres; Not in a flood plain
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Internet service available
• Home design: Existing single-family property; Main living spaces on one level
• Construction: Shingle exterior; Crawl space foundation; Built on existing structure (year built not specified)
• Exterior features: Porch; Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Electric cooktop; Built-in dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level; Walk-in closets
• Flooring: Hardwood laminate; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Space heaters for heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Smooth ceilings; No additional built-in interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-742/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Christian School (math 19% / reading 60%, grade F, #243 of 627 statewide, top 41%, 633 students, 62% FRL); Huffman High Schoolmagnet (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 1,147 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 82% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,455 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,380
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -15.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
433 Somerset Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,240 (+1%)	4mo	$225,000	$181	82
411 Valley Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,252 (+2%)	8mo	$110,000	$88	60
461 Ridge Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+6%)	2mo	$258,000	$197	50
848 86th St S	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,226 (-0%)	4mo	$155,000	$126	48
444 Exeter Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (+9%)	6mo	$245,000	$182	43
528 Cedar St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,116 (-9%)	12mo	$110,000	$99	36
208 Red Lane Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+7%)	13mo	$97,500	$74	35
601 Barclay Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,290 (+5%)	19mo	$194,900	$151	33
624 Hickory St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+14%)	4mo	$228,999	$164	31
615 Esplanade Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,377 (+12%)	22mo	$207,000	$150	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-31,354
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-38,406
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35206

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,058/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $148,978

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9228 Brookhurst Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1146	$999	$0.87	43d	1	0.75mi
216 Sanford Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,200	$1.06	43d	1	0.83mi
8513 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	43d	1	0.86mi
603 Camp Ct Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	43d	1	0.89mi
201 Rose Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	972	$1,100	$1.13	15d	1	0.90mi
726 Orchard Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,095	$0.98	43d	1	0.91mi
8621 10th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	23d	1	0.97mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,528	$1.39	43d	1	0.99mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	10d	1	0.99mi
8416 Division Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,350	$0.92	43d	1	1.08mi
628 Annie Laura Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	844	$1,195	$1.42	43d	1	1.13mi
9844 Greenlee Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1046	$950	$0.91	43d	1	1.13mi
8211 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	966	$1,250	$1.29	43d	1	1.19mi
8242 Vassar Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1212	$1,100	$0.91	43d	1	1.22mi
221 Lawson Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1102	$1,325	$1.20	23d	1	1.23mi
745 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,168	$0.97	1d	1	1.24mi
8202 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,075	$0.91	43d	1	1.25mi
730 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,023	$1.14	3d	1	1.26mi
204 McCormick Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	880	$980	$1.11	3d	1	1.29mi
8333 4th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1384	$1,300	$0.94	43d	1	1.32mi
8149 1st Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	43d	1	1.34mi
209 Tucker Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,100	$1.05	43d	1	1.35mi
775 81st Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,095	$0.89	23d	1	1.37mi
630 Lisa Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1201	$1,095	$0.91	43d	1	1.37mi
8128 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1390	$1,150	$0.83	23d	1	1.37mi
8108 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,200	$0.87	43d	1	1.37mi
8300 4th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1455	$1,300	$0.89	43d	1	1.40mi
735 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,400	$1.14	23d	1	1.40mi
731 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1221	$995	$0.81	10d	1	1.40mi
818 Sunset Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	992	$1,000	$1.01	43d	1	1.42mi
512 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,150	$0.99	43d	1	1.42mi
514 81st St S Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1174	$1,295	$1.10	43d	1	1.43mi
736 Gene Reed Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,220	$0.90	43d	1	1.43mi
252 Westwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1124	$1,400	$1.25	1d	1	1.44mi
832 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,225	$1.00	23d	1	1.45mi
8035 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,050	$0.96	43d	1	1.47mi
252 Meadowdale Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	920	$995	$1.08	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $159,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $169,000 Active 114-char remark
15. 2026-02-21
    historical $1,300
16. 2026-01-28
    listed $1,300
17. 2023-09-18
    historical $1,450
18. 2023-08-29
    listed $1,450
19. 2023-08-25
    soldstatus $149,900
20. 2020-02-26
    price $118,500
21. 2019-02-22
    soldstatus $94,000
22. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus $96,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    New listing in the Historic Roebuck Springs subdivision! This home has been beautifully renovated to its original charm. 4 bedrooms 3 baths, New updated kitchen, new flooring, and new baths. This home is conveniently located to I59 and only a short drive to UAB, shopping, restaurants, etc. . Come and see this adorable home today!

23. 2019-02-08
    historical Contingent

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    New listing in the Historic Roebuck Springs subdivision! This home has been beautifully renovated to its original charm. 4 bedrooms 3 baths, New updated kitchen, new flooring, and new baths. This home is conveniently located to I59 and only a short drive to UAB, shopping, restaurants, etc. . Come and see this adorable home today!

24. 2018-11-09
    price $109,900

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    New listing in the Historic Roebuck Springs subdivision! This home has been beautifully renovated to its original charm. 4 bedrooms 3 baths, New updated kitchen, new flooring, and new baths. This home is conveniently located to I59 and only a short drive to UAB, shopping, restaurants, etc. . Come and see this adorable home today!

25. 2018-10-25
    price $114,900

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    New listing in the Historic Roebuck Springs subdivision! This home has been beautifully renovated to its original charm. 4 bedrooms 3 baths, New updated kitchen, new flooring, and new baths. This home is conveniently located to I59 and only a short drive to UAB, shopping, restaurants, etc. . Come and see this adorable home today!

26. 2018-09-22
    price $119,900

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    New listing in the Historic Roebuck Springs subdivision! This home has been beautifully renovated to its original charm. 4 bedrooms 3 baths, New updated kitchen, new flooring, and new baths. This home is conveniently located to I59 and only a short drive to UAB, shopping, restaurants, etc. . Come and see this adorable home today!

27. 2018-07-30
    listed $129,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    New listing in the Historic Roebuck Springs subdivision! This home has been beautifully renovated to its original charm. 4 bedrooms 3 baths, New updated kitchen, new flooring, and new baths. This home is conveniently located to I59 and only a short drive to UAB, shopping, restaurants, etc. . Come and see this adorable home today!

28. 2018-07-28
    price $129,900
29. 1999-06-30
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,058 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,058 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,058
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$844
• After-tax cash flow: $102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,621
• Household income: $42,549
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1169.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.70%
• Current HPI: 146.2168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+539.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $159,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $169,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-21 Rental Removed $1,300 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-28 Listed for Rent $1,300 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-18 Rental Removed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-29 Listed for Rent $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2020-02-26 Price Changed $118,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-15 Sold (MLS) $96,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-02-08 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-11-09 Price Changed $109,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-10-25 Price Changed $114,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-09-22 Price Changed $119,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-07-30 Listed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-07-28 Price Changed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,058 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.