773 Richard St · Lucerne Valley, CA 92356

$34,000

1 bd · None ba · 448 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 1958 Poor condition 5.00 ac lot $76/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

OLD SILVER CREEK HOMESTEAD. Secluded, private and serene 5 Acres of natural California land with a rough old cabin on the North Face of the San Bernardino Mountains (approx. 3600 ft) overlooking Lucerne Valley, Apple Valley, Victorville and beyond. This is sky country as far as the eye can see. It's like living in the clouds sometimes watching the pink clouds in the turquoise skies that hover over the valleys below. Time seems to stand still here, the air is clean, and the quiet is intoxicating. There is an immense amount of wildlife and birds to enjoy watching in their natural habitat. Hiking, biking, off-roading and even horses are recreational opportunities to enjoy here. The railroad that runs below this property is endless fun to watch and the toot-toot of the train's horn is cool to hear. A high clearance vehicle is highly recommended and a low clearance vehicle is ill advised. Go slow due to rocky roads but it is doable from Custer Rd off Hwy 18 in Lucerne Valley. This old homestead is reached by an access road that runs along the front of the property. Per the seller, there was an old community here once called Silver Creek which even had a bakery. Per the seller, this property was the farm. Tear down the old cabin or rebuild, the choice is yours! * * CONDITION OF CABIN IS UNKNOWN AND MAY BE UNSAFE, DO NOT ENTER FOR YOUR SAFETY * * * * 4X4 high clearance vehicle is strongly recommended * * Rocky roads, go slow. Don't drive up in a low profile car. Property does not have an address assigned. "773 Richard St" is for listing purposes only. APN#0451-301-01-0000 Coordinates: 34.392478 / -116.998106

Key facts

• Cozy getaway
• 5 acre lot
• Built 1958

Tags

• FIVE ACRES OF OPEN LAND
• COZY GETAWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $34k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.1% vs local median 4.7% in Lucerne Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,358 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucerne Valley Elementary (608 students, 91% FRL); Lucerne Valley Middle (137 students, 92% FRL); Lucerne Valley High (274 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($235 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,960 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 113.49%
• DSCR: 6.05
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,785
• List price: $34,000
• Delta: -55.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.97×
• Total profit: $75,884
• Equity at exit: $30,630

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.74×
• Total profit: $178,414
• Equity at exit: $66,055

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92356

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $297

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $924	-5% $912	+0% $900	+5% $889	+10% $877
Rent	-10% $787	-5% $844	+0% $900	+5% $957	+10% $1,014
Rate	-1.0pp $917	-0.5pp $909	base $900	+0.5pp $892	+1.0pp $883

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $34,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $34,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $34,000 Active 1646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1646 chars)

    OLD SILVER CREEK HOMESTEAD. Secluded, private and serene 5 Acres of natural California land with a rough old cabin on the North Face of the San Bernardino Mountains (approx. 3600 ft) overlooking Lucerne Valley, Apple Valley, Victorville and beyond. This is sky country as far as the eye can see. It's like living in the clouds sometimes watching the pink clouds in the turquoise skies that hover over the valleys below. Time seems to stand still here, the air is clean, and the quiet is intoxicating. There is an immense amount of wildlife and birds to enjoy watching in their natural habitat. Hiking, biking, off-roading and even horses are recreational opportunities to enjoy here. The railroad that runs below this property is endless fun to watch and the toot-toot of the train's horn is cool to hear. A high clearance vehicle is highly recommended and a low clearance vehicle is ill advised. Go slow due to rocky roads but it is doable from Custer Rd off Hwy 18 in Lucerne Valley. This old homestead is reached by an access road that runs along the front of the property. Per the seller, there was an old community here once called Silver Creek which even had a bakery. Per the seller, this property was the farm. Tear down the old cabin or rebuild, the choice is yours! * * CONDITION OF CABIN IS UNKNOWN AND MAY BE UNSAFE, DO NOT ENTER FOR YOUR SAFETY * * * * 4X4 high clearance vehicle is strongly recommended * * Rocky roads, go slow. Don't drive up in a low profile car. Property does not have an address assigned. "773 Richard St" is for listing purposes only. APN#0451-301-01-0000 Coordinates: 34.392478 / -116.998106

17. 2026-03-31
    historical
18. 2026-02-12
    price $36,000
19. 2025-09-03
    listed $38,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $10,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,619
• After-tax cash flow: $8,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is in a state of disrepair and requires extensive structural repairs and stabilization to become move-in ready. The roof and structures are in poor condition, and the property lacks basic amenities such as a kitchen and bathrooms. Significant investment is needed to improve the property's condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Rusty and dilapidated
• Major structures — Structures appear unstable and in disrepair

Value-add opportunities

• Both Structural repairs and stabilization — Stabilizing the structures would make the property move-in ready and safe for habitation
• Both Roof replacement — Replacing the damaged roof would improve the property's appearance and functionality
• Both Interior and exterior repairs — Repairing the interior and exterior would make the property move-in ready and improve its curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Rusty and dilapidated	Major	$15,000–50,000
structures · Structures appear unstable and in disrepair	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Structural repairs and stabilization — Stabilizing the structures would make the property move-in ready and safe for habitation ↑
• Both Roof replacement — Replacing the damaged roof would improve the property's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Interior and exterior repairs — Repairing the interior and exterior would make the property move-in ready and improve its curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne Valley

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1358
• US rank: #26994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,665

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.34%
• Current HPI: 440.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $34,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $36,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $38,000 CRMLS