1704 Main Ave · Erwin, TN 37650

$79,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1952 $84/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THE HOME IS ''BEING SOLD AS IS'' THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES WITH THE HOME; 952 SQUARE FEET OF LIVING SPACE; WOOD STOVE AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF HEAT; COVERED FRONT PORCH AREA;

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Built 1952
• Listed 215 days

Tags

• WOOD STOVE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.5% in Erwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Unicoi County (town): math 25% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #88 of 139 in TN (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Unicoi Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 317 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co Middle School (math 26% / reading 22%, grade F, #160 of 333 statewide, top 48%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co High School (math 8% / reading 34%, grade F, #174 of 332 statewide, top 52%, 713 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Unicoi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Unicoi County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $80k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.46%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,266
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -58.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1830 Main St Unit A3	0.64mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,050 (+10%)	11mo	$1,100	$1	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $17,275
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $53,918
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37650

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $557/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $520	-5% $497	+0% $475	+5% $452	+10% $430
Rent	-10% $377	-5% $426	+0% $475	+5% $523	+10% $572
Rate	-1.0pp $515	-0.5pp $495	base $475	+0.5pp $454	+1.0pp $433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $79,900 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 195 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 194 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 193 DOM
19. 2026-04-15
    status Active 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    THE HOME IS ''BEING SOLD AS IS'' THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES WITH THE HOME; 952 SQUARE FEET OF LIVING SPACE; WOOD STOVE AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF HEAT; COVERED FRONT PORCH AREA;

20. 2026-04-07
    historical Active Under Contract 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    THE HOME IS ''BEING SOLD AS IS'' THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES WITH THE HOME; 952 SQUARE FEET OF LIVING SPACE; WOOD STOVE AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF HEAT; COVERED FRONT PORCH AREA;

21. 2025-11-17
    listed $79,900 Active 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    THE HOME IS ''BEING SOLD AS IS'' THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES WITH THE HOME; 952 SQUARE FEET OF LIVING SPACE; WOOD STOVE AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF HEAT; COVERED FRONT PORCH AREA;

22. 1989-03-31
    soldstatus $20,000
23. 1983-01-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $557 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$557
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $4,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Unicoi County
• NCES district ID: 4704230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 21.08/100
• National rank: #8443
• State rank: #88 of 139 in TN

Livability — Erwin

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,109

Population outlook (Unicoi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,083 people
• By 2030: 16,570 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 15,389 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 14,270 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 12,302 · -28.0%
• By 2100: 10,812 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Unicoi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.0) · D 18.5% · R 80.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -40.2pp · 2024: -62.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.0 2020: R+60.0 2016: R+61.5 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+40.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.18%
• Current HPI: 290.1171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+787.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $79,900 TVRMLS
• 1989-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $557 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.