652 Hazel Lawson Rd · Roxboro, NC 27574

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1998 0.84 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet road in a peaceful rural neighborhood. Enjoy the perks of living in an area with easy access to all the amenities and conveniences you need! This home welcomes you with an abundance of natural light flowing through the windows, illuminating the inviting open floor plan living and dining areas. The modern kitchen, with new cabinets and stainless-steel appliances, are gorgeous. This home is a rare find! Everything is new: premium flooring, sub floor, HVAC, vanities, doors, painting, fixtures, ceiling fans, fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Renovated
• 20x10 storage shed
• Updated

Tags

• UPDATED
• RENOVATED
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• 20X10 STORAGE SHED
• ENTRY RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $787 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.77%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $183,491
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.30×
• Total profit: $500,751
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27574

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,171/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $787

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $926	-5% $857	+0% $787	+5% $718	+10% $649
Rent	-10% $560	-5% $674	+0% $787	+5% $901	+10% $1,014
Rate	-1.0pp $911	-0.5pp $850	base $787	+0.5pp $724	+1.0pp $659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $245,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $245,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $255,000
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $259,900 Active
18. 2026-02-28
    historical
19. 2026-01-04
    price $249,500
20. 2025-11-03
    listed $259,000 Active
21. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus $229,900 Sold 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Quiet road in a peaceful rural neighborhood. Enjoy the perks of living in an area with easy access to all the amenities and conveniences you need! This home welcomes you with an abundance of natural light flowing through the windows, illuminating the inviting open floor plan living and dining areas. The modern kitchen, with new cabinets and stainless-steel appliances, are gorgeous. This home is a rare find! Everything is new: premium flooring, sub floor, HVAC, vanities, doors, painting, fixtures, ceiling fans, fenced backyard.

22. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus $230,000

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Quiet road in a peaceful rural neighborhood. Enjoy the perks of living in an area with easy access to all the amenities and conveniences you need! This home welcomes you with an abundance of natural light flowing through the windows, illuminating the inviting open floor plan living and dining areas. The modern kitchen, with new cabinets and stainless-steel appliances, are gorgeous. This home is a rare find! Everything is new: premium flooring, sub floor, HVAC, vanities, doors, painting, fixtures, ceiling fans, fenced backyard.

23. 2024-01-17
    status Pending 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Quiet road in a peaceful rural neighborhood. Enjoy the perks of living in an area with easy access to all the amenities and conveniences you need! This home welcomes you with an abundance of natural light flowing through the windows, illuminating the inviting open floor plan living and dining areas. The modern kitchen, with new cabinets and stainless-steel appliances, are gorgeous. This home is a rare find! Everything is new: premium flooring, sub floor, HVAC, vanities, doors, painting, fixtures, ceiling fans, fenced backyard.

24. 2023-11-07
    listed $229,900 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Quiet road in a peaceful rural neighborhood. Enjoy the perks of living in an area with easy access to all the amenities and conveniences you need! This home welcomes you with an abundance of natural light flowing through the windows, illuminating the inviting open floor plan living and dining areas. The modern kitchen, with new cabinets and stainless-steel appliances, are gorgeous. This home is a rare find! Everything is new: premium flooring, sub floor, HVAC, vanities, doors, painting, fixtures, ceiling fans, fenced backyard.

25. 2023-06-28
    soldstatus $75,000
26. 2016-01-20
    soldstatus $89,000
27. 2016-01-19
    soldstatus $89,000 Closed
28. 2016-01-19
    soldstatus $89,000
29. 2016-01-01
    status Pending
30. 2015-10-14
    price $89,500
31. 2015-09-22
    listed $84,500 Active
32. 2015-09-22
    listed $89,500
33. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus $31,500 Closed
34. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus $31,500
35. 2015-06-18
    status Pending
36. 2015-06-16
    historical Contingent
37. 2015-06-15
    price $39,900
38. 2015-01-08
    price $49,900
39. 2015-01-08
    price $59,900
40. 2014-07-08
    listed $62,900 Active
41. 2014-07-08
    listed $39,900
42. 2014-04-24
    historical
43. 2014-04-24
    price $62,900
44. 2014-01-08
    listed $66,900 Active
45. 2006-12-19
    soldstatus $35,600
46. 2006-12-19
    soldstatus $35,600
47. 2006-11-29
    historical
48. 2006-11-13
    listed $39,900
49. 2006-11-13
    listed $39,900
50. 2006-11-06
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$838/yr (+$70/mo · 71.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,171
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,761
• − Management: −$2,761
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $5,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $8,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 14,163

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.68%
• Current HPI: 276.8767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+467.9% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $255,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $259,900 TMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $249,500 TMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $259,000 TMLS
• 2024-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-26 Sold (MLS) $229,900 TMLS
• 2024-01-17 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-11-07 Listed $229,900 TMLS
• 2023-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-19 Sold (MLS) $89,000 AMLSNC
• 2016-01-19 Sold (MLS) $89,000 TMLS
• 2016-01-01 Pending — TMLS
• 2015-10-14 Price Changed $89,500 TMLS
• 2015-09-22 Listed $84,500 TMLS
• 2015-09-22 Listed $89,500 AMLSNC
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) $31,500 AMLSNC
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) $31,500 TMLS
• 2015-06-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2015-06-16 Contingent — TMLS
• 2015-06-15 Price Changed $39,900 TMLS
• 2015-01-08 Price Changed $49,900 TMLS
• 2015-01-08 Price Changed $59,900 TMLS
• 2014-07-08 Listed $62,900 TMLS
• 2014-07-08 Listed $39,900 AMLSNC
• 2014-04-24 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2014-04-24 Price Changed $62,900 TMLS
• 2014-01-08 Listed $66,900 TMLS
• 2006-12-19 Sold (MLS) $35,600 AMLSNC
• 2006-12-19 Sold (MLS) $35,600 TMLS
• 2006-11-29 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2006-11-13 Listed $39,900 AMLSNC
• 2006-11-13 Listed $39,900 TMLS
• 2006-11-06 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2006-04-25 Listed $44,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,171 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.