15030 Colonia Tierra Rd · Agua Dulce, TX 79928

$99,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1994 0.46 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

0.46-Acre Build-Ready Compound • Electric, Water & Septic Installed • Adobo House & Studio Experience Southern border-country living just moments from I-10 and Clint. This 0.46-acre lot includes a quaint 650 ft² adobo domicile (1 bath), a 100 ft² workshop/cabin, and installed utilities (water, electricity, septic)--creating a rare plug-and-play opportunity in the Colonia Del Paso area. ♦ .46 acres build-ready, no utility hookups required ♦ Licensed history/cabin: steel-reinforced adobe home, oil heating, tin roof ♦ Permitted septic, city water tap, on-site electric meter installed (installs can exceed $20K in this area) ♦ Perfect for RV use, or small-homestead build-out. Home is a fixer-upper/investment opportunity. Home is sold as-is.

Key facts

• Workshop cabin
• City water tap
• Installed utilities

Tags

• BUILD READY COMPOUND
• INSTALLED UTILITIES
• WORKSHOP CABIN
• PERMITTED SEPTIC
• CITY WATER TAP
• ON SITE ELECTRIC METER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,202 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2088 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $692 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.76%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,230
• Equity at exit: $14,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $23,402
• Equity at exit: $8,645

Cash invested: $27,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2088
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,090/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $937

Max offer price $99,990

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,998
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,990 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,990 Active 305 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,990 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,990 Active 303 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,990 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,990 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,990 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,990 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,990 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,990 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,990 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,990 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,990 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    status Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    0.46-Acre Build-Ready Compound • Electric, Water & Septic Installed • Adobo House & Studio Experience Southern border-country living just moments from I-10 and Clint. This 0.46-acre lot includes a quaint 650 ft² adobo domicile (1 bath), a 100 ft² workshop/cabin, and installed utilities (water, electricity, septic)--creating a rare plug-and-play opportunity in the Colonia Del Paso area. ♦ .46 acres build-ready, no utility hookups required ♦ Licensed history/cabin: steel-reinforced adobe home, oil heating, tin roof ♦ Permitted septic, city water tap, on-site electric meter installed (installs can exceed $20K in this area) ♦ Perfect for RV use, or small-homestead build-out. Home is a fixer-upper/investment opportunity. Home is sold as-is.

15. 2026-03-26
    status Pending 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    0.46-Acre Build-Ready Compound • Electric, Water & Septic Installed • Adobo House & Studio Experience Southern border-country living just moments from I-10 and Clint. This 0.46-acre lot includes a quaint 650 ft² adobo domicile (1 bath), a 100 ft² workshop/cabin, and installed utilities (water, electricity, septic)--creating a rare plug-and-play opportunity in the Colonia Del Paso area. ♦ .46 acres build-ready, no utility hookups required ♦ Licensed history/cabin: steel-reinforced adobe home, oil heating, tin roof ♦ Permitted septic, city water tap, on-site electric meter installed (installs can exceed $20K in this area) ♦ Perfect for RV use, or small-homestead build-out. Home is a fixer-upper/investment opportunity. Home is sold as-is.

16. 2026-03-10
    price $99,990 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    0.46-Acre Build-Ready Compound • Electric, Water & Septic Installed • Adobo House & Studio Experience Southern border-country living just moments from I-10 and Clint. This 0.46-acre lot includes a quaint 650 ft² adobo domicile (1 bath), a 100 ft² workshop/cabin, and installed utilities (water, electricity, septic)--creating a rare plug-and-play opportunity in the Colonia Del Paso area. ♦ .46 acres build-ready, no utility hookups required ♦ Licensed history/cabin: steel-reinforced adobe home, oil heating, tin roof ♦ Permitted septic, city water tap, on-site electric meter installed (installs can exceed $20K in this area) ♦ Perfect for RV use, or small-homestead build-out. Home is a fixer-upper/investment opportunity. Home is sold as-is.

17. 2026-03-10
    price $107,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    0.46-Acre Build-Ready Compound • Electric, Water & Septic Installed • Adobo House & Studio Experience Southern border-country living just moments from I-10 and Clint. This 0.46-acre lot includes a quaint 650 ft² adobo domicile (1 bath), a 100 ft² workshop/cabin, and installed utilities (water, electricity, septic)--creating a rare plug-and-play opportunity in the Colonia Del Paso area. ♦ .46 acres build-ready, no utility hookups required ♦ Licensed history/cabin: steel-reinforced adobe home, oil heating, tin roof ♦ Permitted septic, city water tap, on-site electric meter installed (installs can exceed $20K in this area) ♦ Perfect for RV use, or small-homestead build-out. Home is a fixer-upper/investment opportunity. Home is sold as-is.

18. 2025-08-04
    listed $133,000 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    0.46-Acre Build-Ready Compound • Electric, Water & Septic Installed • Adobo House & Studio Experience Southern border-country living just moments from I-10 and Clint. This 0.46-acre lot includes a quaint 650 ft² adobo domicile (1 bath), a 100 ft² workshop/cabin, and installed utilities (water, electricity, septic)--creating a rare plug-and-play opportunity in the Colonia Del Paso area. ♦ .46 acres build-ready, no utility hookups required ♦ Licensed history/cabin: steel-reinforced adobe home, oil heating, tin roof ♦ Permitted septic, city water tap, on-site electric meter installed (installs can exceed $20K in this area) ♦ Perfect for RV use, or small-homestead build-out. Home is a fixer-upper/investment opportunity. Home is sold as-is.

19. 2009-09-16
    soldstatus
20. 1998-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$2,090
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$443
• After-tax cash flow: $2,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Agua Dulce

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1202
• US rank: #21027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $99,990 GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $107,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $133,000 GEPARMLS
• 2009-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,090 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.