Harrison F Plan · Ponder, TX 76259

$389,950

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,625 sqft · SingleFamily · 161 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Explore the Harrison F Floor Plan - New Home Design Available in DFW, TXThe Harrison F offers 5 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, and 2625 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space that adapts to your needs. From everyday routines to special moments, this layout is built to support how you live - with comfort, functionality, and style in mind. Features like Dedicated Study Niche, Optional Bathtub, and Covered Patio create a flexible foundation for personalization and convenience. Whether you're relaxing, hosting, working from home, or simply enjoying daily life, the Harrison F provides the right spaces in the right places.

Key facts

• Optional bathtub
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DEDICATED STUDY NICHE
• OPTIONAL BATHTUB
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $389,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $669,671.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 4.3% in Ponder — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ponder ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #165 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponder El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 754 students, 44% FRL); Ponder J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 381 students, 40% FRL); Ponder H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 505 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,239 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.01%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 20.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $669,671
• List price: $389,950
• Delta: -41.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10550 Jackson Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,462 (-6%)	5mo	$749,999	$305	42
3728 George Owens Rd	1.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,543 (-3%)	10mo	$670,000	$263	42
10903 Jackson Rd	0.88mi	5/3.0	2,300 (-12%)	5mo	$474,900	$206	38
1990 Ripy Rd	1.43mi	5/5.5	3,117 (+19%)	6mo	$725,000	$233	27
11260 Old Stoney Rd	1.44mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,070 (+17%)	36mo	$619,000	$202	13
485 Stone Ridge Dr	1.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-23%)	26mo	$299,900	$149	9
3610 George Owens Rd	1.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,143 (-18%)	26mo	$625,000	$292	9
435 Stoney Acres	1.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,128 (-19%)	34mo	$240,000	$113	9

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-267,762
• Equity at exit: $99,850

10-year hold

• IRR: -90.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.34×
• Total profit: $-438,106
• Equity at exit: $57,901

Cash invested: $187,508 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active
• Months of supply: 216.0 mo (0%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $374,950 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 72% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +72.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,512
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$837 /mo · $10,045/yr
• Insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-2,501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,858

Max offer price $307,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,038	-5% $-2,270	+0% $-2,501	+5% $-2,732	+10% $-2,964
Rent	-10% $-2,714	-5% $-2,607	+0% $-2,501	+5% $-2,395	+10% $-2,288
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,164	-0.5pp $-2,331	base $-2,501	+0.5pp $-2,674	+1.0pp $-2,851

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $167,418
• Closing costs: $20,090
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $389,950

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Single-family planLocated in Ponder, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,625

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Harrison Select FNew construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $389,950 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $389,950 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $389,950 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $389,950 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $389,950 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $389,950 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $389,950 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $389,950 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $389,950 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $389,950 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $389,950 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $389,950 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $389,950 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $389,950 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $389,950 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $389,950 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $389,950 Active 139 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $389,950 Active 137 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $389,950 Active 136 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $389,950 Active 135 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $389,950 Active 134 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $389,950 Active 133 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $389,950 Active 132 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $389,950 Active 131 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $389,950 Active 130 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $389,950 Active 129 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $389,950 Active 128 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $389,950 Active 127 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $389,950 Active 126 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $389,950 Active 125 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $389,950 Active 124 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $389,950 Active 123 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $389,950 Active 122 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $389,950 Active 121 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $389,950 Active 120 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $389,950 Active 119 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $389,950 Active 118 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $389,950 Active 117 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $389,950 Active 116 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $389,950 Active 115 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $389,950 Active 114 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $389,950 Active 112 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $389,950 Active 111 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $389,950 Active 110 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $389,950 Active 109 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $389,950 Active 106 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $389,950 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $389,950 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $389,950 Active 101 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $389,950 Active 99 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,512
• − Property taxes: −$10,045
• − Insurance: −$3,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − Depreciation: −$19,481
• Taxable loss: −$43,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding convenience and appeal. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ponder El F TX #1,514/4,322 Nat'l #19,354/41,679 Middle Ponder J H C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Ponder H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ponder ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835310
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,768
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #2987
• State rank: #165 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 30% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $389,950

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Single-family planLocated in Ponder, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,625

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Harrison Select FNew construction plan