1613 Lexington St · Waco, TX 76711

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1949 0.34 ac lot $87/sqft · 37% below area Est $191k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special – Prime Flip Opportunity in Waco! Calling all investors and visionaries! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is a great opportunity to renovate and add value in the Waco market. The property features additional bonus rooms, offering flexibility for a home office, extra bedroom, or expanded living space. A spacious lot with a large backyard provides plenty of room to enhance outdoor living or increase overall appeal. With a roof that’s only 3 years old, this home offers a solid starting point for your next flip or investment project. Whether you’re looking for a flip or a buy-and-hold opportunity, this property is full of potential. Bring your vision and make it shine!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Roof three years old
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• ADDITIONAL BONUS ROOMS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• ROOF THREE YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,559
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -37.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1512 Holly Vista St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+8%)	0mo	$269,999	$182	78
3820 James Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,339 (-2%)	4mo	$200,000	$149	75
1313 Dartmouth St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+4%)	6mo	$199,000	$139	74
1512 Lexington	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+6%)	8mo	$248,500	$171	70
2213 Autumn Woods Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-5%)	1mo	$249,900	$191	65
1520 Holly Vista St	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,573 (+15%)	9mo	$135,000	$86	63
1413 Shelburne St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	4mo	$199,900	$164	62
3501 Bagby Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-2%)	1mo	$204,000	$151	62
3917 Charlton Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-10%)	5mo	$237,000	$193	62
3901 Acree St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,408 (+3%)	13mo	$235,000	$167	52
821 Columbia St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,554 (+13%)	7mo	$245,000	$158	41
3401 James Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,536 (+12%)	8mo	$249,000	$162	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $30,397
• Equity at exit: $57,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $85,347
• Equity at exit: $92,236

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76711

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,328/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4009 James Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,495	$1.42	21d	1	0.19mi
2201 Creekview Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,094	$2.12	14d	20	0.54mi
4900 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,650	$1.61	21d	1	0.62mi
4000 Acree St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	984	$1,295	$1.32	21d	1	0.65mi
3812 Hiland Dr Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$995	$0.89	14d	1	0.66mi
5210 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,695	$1.67	14d	12	0.71mi
828 Horseshoe Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,750	$1.44	21d	1	0.85mi
2500 Marketplace Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$1,560	$1.69	14d	10	0.87mi
3743 Vista Cove Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,850	$1.23	21d	1	0.90mi
700 S Valley Mills Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$995	$1.17	14d	2	0.90mi
3001 S New Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,645	$1.86	14d	15	1.01mi
3200 Belmont Dr Unit 3228 Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,500	$1.51	14d	1	1.01mi
3447 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	907	$1,350	$1.49	14d	1	1.16mi
3430 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	916	$1,150	$1.26	44d	1	1.20mi
3411 Pewitt Dr #3413 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	21d	1	1.27mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	1.37mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	21d	1	1.37mi
2601 Flint Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,720	$1.27	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $120,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Investor Special – Prime Flip Opportunity in Waco! Calling all investors and visionaries! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is a great opportunity to renovate and add value in the Waco market. The property features additional bonus rooms, offering flexibility for a home office, extra bedroom, or expanded living space. A spacious lot with a large backyard provides plenty of room to enhance outdoor living or increase overall appeal. With a roof that’s only 3 years old, this home offers a solid starting point for your next flip or investment project. Whether you’re looking for a flip or a buy-and-hold opportunity, this property is full of potential. Bring your vision and make it shine!

18. 2026-02-25
    listed $145,000 Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Investor Special – Prime Flip Opportunity in Waco! Calling all investors and visionaries! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is a great opportunity to renovate and add value in the Waco market. The property features additional bonus rooms, offering flexibility for a home office, extra bedroom, or expanded living space. A spacious lot with a large backyard provides plenty of room to enhance outdoor living or increase overall appeal. With a roof that’s only 3 years old, this home offers a solid starting point for your next flip or investment project. Whether you’re looking for a flip or a buy-and-hold opportunity, this property is full of potential. Bring your vision and make it shine!

19. 2022-06-08
    soldstatus
20. 2020-04-17
    historical
21. 2020-01-15
    listed $109,000
22. 2015-01-28
    soldstatus
23. 2003-09-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,328 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,328 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$4,328
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,676
• Household income: $53,185
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 43% White 23% Black 12% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 261.7166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2020-01-15 Listed $109,000 NTREIS
• 2015-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,328 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.