1613 Lexington St · Waco, TX 76711

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1949 Good condition 0.34 ac lot $87/sqft · 36% below area Est $188k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special – Prime Flip Opportunity in Waco! Calling all investors and visionaries! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is a great opportunity to renovate and add value in the Waco market. The property features additional bonus rooms, offering flexibility for a home office, extra bedroom, or expanded living space. A spacious lot with a large backyard provides plenty of room to enhance outdoor living or increase overall appeal. With a roof that’s only 3 years old, this home offers a solid starting point for your next flip or investment project. Whether you’re looking for a flip or a buy-and-hold opportunity, this property is full of potential. Bring your vision and make it shine!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Roof three years old
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• ADDITIONAL BONUS ROOMS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• ROOF THREE YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kendrick El (math 15% / reading 19%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 482 students, 96% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 840 students, 94% FRL); University H S (math 39% / reading 31%, grade F, #954 of 1,632 statewide, top 59%, 1,678 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,421
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -36.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1512 Holly Vista St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+8%)	2mo	$269,999	$182	76
3820 James Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,339 (-2%)	6mo	$200,000	$149	74
1313 Dartmouth St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+4%)	8mo	$199,000	$139	73
1512 Lexington	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+6%)	9mo	$248,500	$171	69
2213 Autumn Woods Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-5%)	2mo	$249,900	$191	64
1520 Holly Vista St	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,573 (+15%)	10mo	$135,000	$86	62
1413 Shelburne St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	6mo	$199,900	$164	61
3501 Bagby Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-2%)	2mo	$204,000	$151	61
3917 Charlton Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-10%)	6mo	$237,000	$193	60
2128 Sunnydell Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+3%)	2mo	$174,900	$124	60
821 Columbia St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,554 (+13%)	8mo	$245,000	$158	40
3401 James Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,536 (+12%)	10mo	$249,000	$162	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $30,397
• Equity at exit: $57,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $85,347
• Equity at exit: $92,236

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $195,000 ($132/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76711

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,328/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $234	+0% $200	+5% $166	+10% $132
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $138	+0% $200	+5% $262	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $231	base $200	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4009 James Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,495	$1.42	70d	1	0.19mi
2201 Creekview Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,094	$2.12	62d	20	0.54mi
4900 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,650	$1.61	70d	1	0.62mi
4000 Acree St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	984	$1,295	$1.32	70d	1	0.65mi
3812 Hiland Dr Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$995	$0.89	62d	1	0.66mi
5210 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,695	$1.67	62d	12	0.71mi
828 Horseshoe Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,750	$1.44	70d	1	0.85mi
2500 Marketplace Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$1,560	$1.69	62d	10	0.87mi
3743 Vista Cove Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,850	$1.23	70d	1	0.90mi
700 S Valley Mills Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$995	$1.17	62d	2	0.90mi
3001 S New Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,645	$1.86	62d	15	1.01mi
3200 Belmont Dr Unit 3228 Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,500	$1.51	62d	1	1.01mi
3447 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	907	$1,350	$1.49	62d	1	1.16mi
3430 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	916	$1,150	$1.26	92d	1	1.20mi
3411 Pewitt Dr #3413 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	70d	1	1.27mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	92d	1	1.37mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	70d	1	1.37mi
2601 Flint Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,720	$1.27	92d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $120,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $120,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $120,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 139 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 138 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 137 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 136 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 135 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 134 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 133 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 132 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 131 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 130 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 129 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 128 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 127 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 126 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 125 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 124 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 122 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 121 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 120 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,328 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,328 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$4,328
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $34,300–$61,740 screening

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Waco offers a good starting point for investors looking to renovate and add value. The roof is new, and the interior is in good condition, but the kitchen and bathroom need updates. Landscaping and curb appeal improvements will also enhance the property's value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring carpet

Deferred maintenance Est. $500–$2,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the roof.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen flooring — Exposed subfloor, no cabinetry
• Major Kitchen cabinets — Exposed subfloor, no cabinetry
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures, no updates

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom update — Upgraded bathroom will appeal to buyers ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhanced landscaping will improve curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kendrick El F TX #3,836/4,322 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle Cesar Chavez Middle F TX #1,428/1,662 Nat'l #11,652/14,009 High University H S F TX #954/1,632 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,676
• Household income: $53,185
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 43% White 23% Black 12% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 261.7166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2020-01-15 Listed $109,000 NTREIS
• 2015-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,328 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.