2811 W Lafayette Ave · Baltimore, MD 21216

$85,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Townhouse public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

REDUCED! This 4BR 2.5BA has an updated modern kitchen and has 1500+ Sq ft above grade. One of the largest properties around. 10 Ft ceiling in basement with plenty of room to make into a complete separate BR, BA and kitchen setup. Large fenced in back yard Buyer to pay of closings costs, including all transferred docs and stamps. Property sold strictly as is. Realtor to make up paperwork.

Key facts

• Built 1940
• Listed 25 days

Tags

• UPDATED MODERN KITCHEN
• 10 FT CEILING IN BASEMENT
• LARGE FENCED IN BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total below-grade area: 714 (per assessor); Above-grade finished area per assessor
• HOA & community: Ground rent of $120 payable semi-annually

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior; Other foundation type; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (natural gas); 60+ gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Living area measured per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,998/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $85k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.67%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,944
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2822 Harlem Ave	0.16mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,483 (-2%)	1mo	$220,000	$148	76
2514 W Lafayette Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+3%)	2mo	$232,000	$149	68
2404 W Lafayette Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-2%)	2mo	$135,000	$91	66
2400 W Lafayette Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,584 (+5%)	2mo	$263,000	$166	66
3018 Presstman St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	1mo	$108,000	$77	58
2920 Brighton St	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	2mo	$247,500	$172	54
517 N Edgewood St	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,430 (-5%)	2mo	$90,000	$63	51
1625 N Rosedale St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,396 (-7%)	2mo	$36,000	$26	50
743 Linnard St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,693 (+12%)	1mo	$199,000	$118	45
3118 Normount Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (+14%)	1mo	$174,990	$101	45
3004 Brighton St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (-15%)	1mo	$44,000	$34	44
1528 N Ellamont St	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,328 (-12%)	1mo	$209,000	$157	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $59,179
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.95×
• Total profit: $165,292
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $1,045

Break-even live

Break-even rent $676

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,093	-5% $1,069	+0% $1,045	+5% $1,021	+10% $996
Rent	-10% $887	-5% $966	+0% $1,045	+5% $1,124	+10% $1,202
Rate	-1.0pp $1,087	-0.5pp $1,066	base $1,045	+0.5pp $1,023	+1.0pp $1,000

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	25d	1	0.10mi
2806 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,900	$1.35	5d	1	0.18mi
2728 Winchester St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,800	$1.43	5d	1	0.25mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	45d	1	0.26mi
2922 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	45d	1	0.27mi
715 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	1542	$2,550	$1.65	45d	1	0.30mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	45d	1	0.31mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	25d	1	0.34mi
1402 Poplar Grove St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1540	$800	$0.52	45d	1	0.42mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	25d	1	0.47mi
2303 Calverton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1314	$2,250	$1.71	25d	1	0.49mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	45d	1	0.49mi
918 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,750	$1.18	45d	1	0.50mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	0.51mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	16d	1	0.61mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	25d	1	0.62mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	45d	1	0.64mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	25d	1	0.66mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	25d	1	0.66mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	45d	1	0.69mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	25d	1	0.71mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	45d	1	0.75mi
1633 N Hilton St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	19d	1	0.77mi
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	5d	1	0.77mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	25d	1	0.78mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	19d	1	0.79mi
1914 Mosher St Unit 1914 Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1200	$1,700	$1.42	45d	1	0.81mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	5d	1	0.82mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.83mi
39 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1844	$1,700	$0.92	4d	1	0.83mi
2012 W Saratoga St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	25d	1	0.84mi
2537 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	25d	1	0.84mi
3619 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1962	$2,800	$1.43	45d	1	0.84mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	5d	1	0.86mi
2401 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.0	2037	$1,800	$0.88	5d	1	0.86mi
3700 Woodridge Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1955	$1,950	$1.00	45d	1	0.86mi
202 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,250	$1.32	25d	1	0.87mi
41 N Kossuth St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	25d	1	0.88mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	0.89mi
1501 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	45d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 390-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   price $89,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $99,000 Active
18. 1994-09-06
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $780 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 23.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $11,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,844
• After-tax cash flow: $9,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+135.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1994-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +22.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.