1004 Hickory St · Excelsior Springs, MO 64024

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1930 0.39 ac lot Est $163k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3 bed, 1 bath bungalow home with modern updates throughout! Features newer flooring, fresh interior/exterior paint, updated kitchen with ample cabinetry, and renovated bath. Bonus room on main level offers flexible space for office or guest room. Major improvements include new A/C, newer water heater, and new sump pump. Enjoy a covered patio and fully fenced backyard with new French drain on a generous lot. Conveniently located near schools and community center—don’t miss this one!

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Bungalow / 1.5-story
• Construction: Lap siding; Composition roof; Concrete basement; Home age approximately 76–100 years
• Exterior features: Deck; Metal fencing; Shed(s); City lot, level; Paved road with public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Built-in oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one on the main floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Painted cabinets; Sun room; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($27/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Excelsior Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#228 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Excelsior Springs 40 (town): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #225 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewis Elementary (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #604 of 1,115 statewide, top 54%, 425 students, 62% FRL); Excelsior Springs Middle (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #306 of 391 statewide, top 80%, 576 students, 51% FRL); Excelsior Springs High (math 12% / reading 62%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 787 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 341 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,916 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 Wilhite St	0.14mi	3/1.0	944 (-5%)	3mo	$180,000	$191	83
1004 Hickory St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+11%)	1mo	$175,000	$159	81
724 Elmwood St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	955 (-4%)	3mo	$169,000	$177	78
332 Woods Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5	950 (-4%)	4mo	$269,900	$284	77
725 Ley St	0.46mi	3/1.0	974 (-2%)	0mo	$185,900	$191	76
1 Vine St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,108 (+12%)	0mo	$155,000	$140	71
128 Wildwood Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-7%)	3mo	$115,000	$125	69
411 Holtz St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+10%)	5mo	$149,900	$137	62
602 Saint Louis Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,109 (+12%)	4mo	$182,500	$165	56
207 Kibler Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-3%)	4mo	$175,000	$182	53
712 St Louis Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+13%)	2mo	$109,900	$98	52
118 Vaughn St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+9%)	3mo	$170,000	$157	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-28,237
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-24,501
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64024

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,728/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,436

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $52	+0% $2	+5% $-47	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-55	+0% $2	+5% $59	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $47	base $2	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
317 Woods St Excelsior Springs, MO	2.0	1.0	884	$1,297	$1.47	0d	1	0.21mi
410 N Titus Ave Excelsior Springs, MO	3.0	2.0	910	$1,476	$1.62	45d	1	0.27mi
1406 Magnolia W Excelsior Springs, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	23d	2	0.35mi
701 Tiger Dr Excelsior Springs, MO	2.0	1.5	800	$1,250	$1.56	0d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-21
   listed $175,000 Active
4. 2026-04-20
   historical $175,000
5. 2025-11-26
   historical
6. 2025-10-08
   price $185,000
7. 2025-09-04
   listed $190,000 Active
8. 2025-09-03
   historical
9. 2025-08-20
   price $190,000
10. 2025-08-01
    listed $195,000 Active
11. 2023-09-04
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2023-08-28
    status Pending
13. 2023-08-01
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2023-07-29
    listed $164,900 Active
15. 2014-12-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,728
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Excelsior Springs 40
• NCES district ID: 2911650
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,747
• Composite: 29.32/100
• National rank: #6548
• State rank: #225 of 324 in MO

Livability — Excelsior Springs

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #11166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Excelsior Springs, MO
• County: Clay County · 220,651 people
• City population: 15,574
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 15,574
• Household income: $77,895
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 329.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 266,022 people
• By 2030: 280,057 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 306,153 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 328,630 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 375,182 · +41.0%
• By 2100: 392,861 · +47.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.6) · D 46.4% · R 52.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: -5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.6 2020: R+4.1 2016: R+11.1 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.83%
• Current HPI: 302.9184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+6.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $175,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $175,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $185,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed $190,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $190,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Listed $195,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-04 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-28 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-01 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-29 Listed $164,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,728 · +56.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.