475 Thrush #9 · Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$137,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1987 $122/sqft · at area comps Est $138k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home Just Blocks from Snow Summit! This beautifully upgraded and thoughtfully designed 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home is truly move-in ready and ideally located just blocks from Snow Summit and minutes from everything Big Bear Lake has to offer. Close to the main hub of Big Bear, you’ll enjoy easy access to grocery stores, fine dining, boutique shopping, and the local park — all just moments from your door. Year-round recreation, the lake, and village activities are right at your fingertips. The home has been tastefully upgraded and designed for comfort and style, offering a fresh, modern feel throughout. The property shows like new and has been exceptionally well-maintained. With its open, spacious layout, it offers easy mountain living, whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat. Situated in a very affordable 55+ community on one of the park's widest streets, this property offers added space, convenience, and a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. The home also features an impeccable driveway, adding to the pride of ownership and curb appeal. Enjoy the perfect blend of location, lifestyle, and move-in-ready convenience.

Key facts

• Open spacious layout
• Close to fine dining
• Close to local park

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO GROCERY STORES
• CLOSE TO FINE DINING
• CLOSE TO BOUTIQUE SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO LOCAL PARK
• YEAR-ROUND RECREATION
• OPEN SPACIOUS LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $927 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 540 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,670 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.08%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,500
• List price: $137,000
• Delta: -1.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
475 Thrush #15	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (0%)	1mo	$97,000	$87	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $30,186
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $76,555
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92315

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 540
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,270 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $289/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $927

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,005	-5% $966	+0% $927	+5% $888	+10% $685
Rent	-10% $748	-5% $838	+0% $927	+5% $1,017	+10% $1,107
Rate	-1.0pp $996	-0.5pp $962	base $927	+0.5pp $892	+1.0pp $856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 Summit Blvd Unit A Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1373	$2,400	$1.75	44d	1	0.23mi
619 Summit Blvd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,200	$1.84	25d	1	0.26mi
41935 Switzerland Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,000	$3.33	19d	1	0.56mi
41935 Switzerland Dr #58 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	3.0	1053	$1,675	$1.59	0d	1	0.59mi
365 Jeffries Rd Unit C Big Bear Lake, CA	1.0	1.5	780	$1,675	$2.15	44d	1	0.61mi
42638 Moonridge Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	3.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	44d	1	1.11mi
145 Pinion Pl Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	44d	1	1.25mi
933 Cameron Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,500	$2.94	4d	1	1.40mi
42814 Willow Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	798	$1,995	$2.50	17d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $137,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $137,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    price $146,000 1210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1210 chars)

    Spacious 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home Just Blocks from Snow Summit! This beautifully upgraded and thoughtfully designed 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home is truly move-in ready and ideally located just blocks from Snow Summit and minutes from everything Big Bear Lake has to offer. Close to the main hub of Big Bear, you’ll enjoy easy access to grocery stores, fine dining, boutique shopping, and the local park — all just moments from your door. Year-round recreation, the lake, and village activities are right at your fingertips. The home has been tastefully upgraded and designed for comfort and style, offering a fresh, modern feel throughout. The property shows like new and has been exceptionally well-maintained. With its open, spacious layout, it offers easy mountain living, whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat. Situated in a very affordable 55+ community on one of the park's widest streets, this property offers added space, convenience, and a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. The home also features an impeccable driveway, adding to the pride of ownership and curb appeal. Enjoy the perfect blend of location, lifestyle, and move-in-ready convenience.

17. 2026-04-15
    price $146,000 1213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1213 chars)

    Spacious 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home Just Blocks from Snow Summit! This beautifully upgraded and thoughtfully designed 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home is truly move-in ready and ideally located just blocks from Snow Summit and minutes from everything Big Bear Lake has to offer. Close to the main hub of Big Bear, you’ll enjoy easy access to grocery stores, fine dining, boutique shopping, and the local park — all just moments from your door. Year-round recreation, the lake, and village activities are right at your fingertips. The home has been tastefully upgraded and designed for comfort and style, offering a fresh, modern feel throughout. The property shows like new and has been exceptionally well-maintained. With its open, spacious layout, it offers easy mountain living, whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat. Situated in a very affordable 55+ community on one of the park's widest streets, this property offers added space, convenience, and a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. The home also features an impeccable driveway, adding to the pride of ownership and curb appeal. Enjoy the perfect blend of location, lifestyle, and move-in-ready convenience.

18. 2026-03-09
    listed $159,000 Active 1210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1210 chars)

    Spacious 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home Just Blocks from Snow Summit! This beautifully upgraded and thoughtfully designed 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home is truly move-in ready and ideally located just blocks from Snow Summit and minutes from everything Big Bear Lake has to offer. Close to the main hub of Big Bear, you’ll enjoy easy access to grocery stores, fine dining, boutique shopping, and the local park — all just moments from your door. Year-round recreation, the lake, and village activities are right at your fingertips. The home has been tastefully upgraded and designed for comfort and style, offering a fresh, modern feel throughout. The property shows like new and has been exceptionally well-maintained. With its open, spacious layout, it offers easy mountain living, whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat. Situated in a very affordable 55+ community on one of the park's widest streets, this property offers added space, convenience, and a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. The home also features an impeccable driveway, adding to the pride of ownership and curb appeal. Enjoy the perfect blend of location, lifestyle, and move-in-ready convenience.

19. 2026-03-06
    listed $159,000 Active 1213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1213 chars)

    Spacious 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home Just Blocks from Snow Summit! This beautifully upgraded and thoughtfully designed 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home is truly move-in ready and ideally located just blocks from Snow Summit and minutes from everything Big Bear Lake has to offer. Close to the main hub of Big Bear, you’ll enjoy easy access to grocery stores, fine dining, boutique shopping, and the local park — all just moments from your door. Year-round recreation, the lake, and village activities are right at your fingertips. The home has been tastefully upgraded and designed for comfort and style, offering a fresh, modern feel throughout. The property shows like new and has been exceptionally well-maintained. With its open, spacious layout, it offers easy mountain living, whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat. Situated in a very affordable 55+ community on one of the park's widest streets, this property offers added space, convenience, and a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. The home also features an impeccable driveway, adding to the pride of ownership and curb appeal. Enjoy the perfect blend of location, lifestyle, and move-in-ready convenience.

20. 2023-03-29
    soldstatus $134,900 Closed
21. 2023-03-07
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2023-02-04
    price $139,500
23. 2023-01-09
    listed $139,500 Active
24. 2022-11-17
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
25. 2022-11-17
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
26. 2022-11-16
    status Pending
27. 2022-10-30
    status Pending
28. 2022-10-30
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2022-10-21
    listed $69,900 Active
30. 2022-10-20
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $289 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,041 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$753/yr (+$63/mo · 260.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥82°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$289
• − Insurance: −$1,482
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,179
• − Management: −$2,179
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $9,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,268
• After-tax cash flow: $8,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear Lake, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $77,436
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.29%
• Current HPI: 310.1013
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+108.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $146,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $146,000 MRCAOR
• 2026-03-09 Listed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $159,000 MRCAOR
• 2023-03-29 Sold (MLS) $134,900 MRCAOR
• 2023-03-07 Contingent — MRCAOR
• 2023-02-04 Price Changed $139,500 MRCAOR
• 2023-01-09 Listed $139,500 MRCAOR
• 2022-11-17 Sold (MLS) $55,000 GPSMLS
• 2022-11-17 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MRCAOR
• 2022-11-16 Pending — MRCAOR
• 2022-10-30 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2022-10-30 Contingent — MRCAOR
• 2022-10-21 Listed $69,900 GPSMLS
• 2022-10-20 Listed $69,900 MRCAOR

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $289 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.