2202 Game Farm Rd · Panama City, FL 32405

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1962 0.52 ac lot $210/sqft · at area comps Est $232k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on over half an acre, this solid concrete block 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect blend of space, functionality, and flexibility with no shortage of room for your hobbies, animals, and equipment! With horses and livestock allowed, this property is ideal for those seeking a mini-homestead or extra room to spread out. Recent updates include a durable metal roof (2018) and new PEX plumbing throughout the home, offering peace of mind for years to come. The property is connected to public water and sewer for added convenience. Outside, the possibilities are endless with an impressive lineup of outbuildings and storage options, including a 12x50 enclosed pole barn/workshop with 1

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space; RV carport
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property; Horses allowed (zoning)
• Construction: Block, metal siding, and concrete construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Chain link fenced yard; Sprinkler system; Garage(s), RV/boat storage, shed(s), and workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Additional bedroom(s)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Central heating and air with ceiling fans; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-38/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hiland Park Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 643 students, 56% FRL); Mowat Middle School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 868 students, 49% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,738 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,372
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 1.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1036 E 26th St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-11%)	9mo	$221,500	$222	54
928 E 25Th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	8mo	$255,000	$221	53
2808 Hyde Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+7%)	21mo	$255,000	$213	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-41,554
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-49,418
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,493/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $234,446

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $63	+0% $-3	+5% $-70	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-76	+0% $-3	+5% $69	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $57	base $-3	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2733 Carol Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	22d	1	0.18mi
2950 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1199	$1,725	$1.44	22d	6	1.26mi
2870 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,770	$1.44	22d	1	1.35mi
2002 Wilson Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,260	$2.31	14d	25	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $235,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 24 DOM
19. 2026-05-05
    listed $240,000 Active 1219-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$458/yr (+$38/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,493
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,147
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$995
• After-tax cash flow: $958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $235,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $240,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,493 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.