507 Centre St · Trenton, NJ 08611

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 941 sqft · Townhouse public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 1,651 sqft lot Est $158k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two (2) Bedroom 1 Bath Row. Fair Condition but Selling in As Is Condition. Buyer responsible for C/O inspection and repairs if required.

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Natural gas service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: End-of-row townhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Finished above-grade area: 941 (source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 16.5 x 100 ft

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level; Total rooms: 6 (includes living room, dining room, master bedroom, kitchen, and another bedroom)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (located on the first upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water baseboard heating; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Partial, unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $135k implies a 487% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.01%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Furman St	0.32mi	2/1.0	962 (+2%)	8mo	$75,000	$78	75
19 Landing St	0.18mi	2/1.0	816 (-13%)	8mo	$182,000	$223	63
66 Jersey St	0.40mi	2/1.0	846 (-10%)	11mo	$120,000	$142	56
106 Home Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	828 (-12%)	5mo	$170,000	$205	55
811 S Warren St	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	832 (-12%)	2mo	$157,500	$189	53
125 Hancock St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,070 (+14%)	8mo	$195,000	$182	50
45 Jersey St	0.37mi	2/1.0	820 (-13%)	13mo	$137,500	$168	50
245 Grand St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (+9%)	10mo	$195,000	$190	46
345 Genesee St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+15%)	1mo	$110,000	$102	45
56 Jersey St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,071 (+14%)	13mo	$150,000	$140	43
1210 Chestnut Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,047 (+11%)	1mo	$170,000	$162	42
412 Grand St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,071 (+14%)	11mo	$172,000	$161	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $13,433
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $66,627
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08611

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,967/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $542	+0% $504	+5% $466	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $361	-5% $433	+0% $504	+5% $576	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $539	base $504	+0.5pp $469	+1.0pp $434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
547 Centre St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,850	$1.75	22d	1	0.07mi
225 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	22d	1	0.45mi
313 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1112	$2,100	$1.89	15d	1	0.52mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	15d	4	0.53mi
176 Division St Apt 211 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	675	$1,450	$2.15	22d	1	0.87mi
176 Division St Apt 106 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	975	$1,700	$1.74	22d	1	0.87mi
837 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	22d	1	0.90mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 111 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	1102	$1,500	$1.36	22d	1	1.05mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 103 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	832	$1,450	$1.74	22d	1	1.05mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	22d	1	1.06mi
435 Tyler St Unit 115 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	22d	1	1.08mi
435 Tyler St Unit 123 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	607	$1,475	$2.43	22d	1	1.08mi
435 Tyler St Apt 203 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	662	$1,500	$2.27	22d	1	1.08mi
150 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	627	$1,750	$2.79	22d	1	1.10mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	15d	2	1.10mi
202 E Hanover St Unit 5G Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	22d	1	1.16mi
27 E Palmer St Unit 5 Morrisville, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	15d	1	1.16mi
27 E Palmer St Unit 6 Morrisville, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	15d	1	1.16mi
400 W Bridge St Unit A Morrisville, PA	1.0	1.0	1085	$1,495	$1.38	15d	1	1.24mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	22d	1	1.25mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,220	$1.36	22d	1	1.25mi
504 Woodland Ave Morrisville, PA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,475	$2.27	15d	4	1.32mi
27 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	22d	1	1.48mi
12 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	1068	$1,600	$1.50	22d	1	1.49mi
339 Tioga St #339 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	864	$1,850	$2.14	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 561-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $135,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,967 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,664 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,967
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$995
• After-tax cash flow: $5,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,995
• Household income: $56,788
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2147.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Black 20% Two or more races 18% White 14% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Swiss 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.62%
• Current HPI: 276.5427
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.71%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+654.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-11 Sold (MLS) $23,000 TREND
• 2018-06-11 Sold (MLS) $23,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-23 Pending — TREND
• 2018-03-28 Price Changed $37,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-28 Price Changed $37,000 TREND
• 2018-03-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-27 Relisted — TREND
• 2018-01-22 Pending — TREND
• 2018-01-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-10 Listed $39,900 TREND
• 2017-12-10 Listed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,967 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.